The perils of market forecasting

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open gives investors access to everything they need to know, wherever they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

The Nasdaq is performing better
US stocks Friday ended mixed. The S&P 500 was smooth, the Dow Jones industrial average 0.2% lost for the seventh straight day of losses and the Nasdaq Composite 0.12 % added. Sections of Broadcom it jumped 24%, launching it into the trillion-dollar market capitalization club. Europe Stoxx 600 changed so far -0.53% compared to yesterday the end of the week in the redsnapping a three-week winning streak.

OpenAI opens up about Musk
OpenAI co-founder Elon Musk pushed to create a new one structure for profit for the company in 2017, OpenAI said in a blog post. But, “when he didn't get majority equality and full control, he walked away,” OpenAI wrote along with screenshots of Musk's email. In November, Musk asked a federal court to block OpenAI converting to a for-profit entity.

Tech companies donate to Trump
Technology companies have a history of conflict with US President Donald Trump giving to his kind. Meta to donate $1 million, the company confirmed to CNBC, Amazon intend to give the same amount, according to The Wall Street Journal and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is also making a personal donation of the same amount, according to the company.

The president of South Korea was impeached
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol impeached on Saturday after 204 lawmakers in the National Assembly voted for the motion. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will be serve as acting president. On Sunday, Han spoke with US President Joe Biden, and the country's finance ministry said it would continue monitor markets.

(PRO) Overview of rates and prices
Interest rates and inflation in focus this week. The US Federal Reserve's rate-setting meeting ends on Wednesday, while the personal consumption expenditure price index, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation because it reflects how consumers spend money, will ' come out Friday.

The S&P 500 they may have slipped 0.6% last week, snapping a three-week winning streak. But it's still up nearly 27% this year, breaking the 6,000 mark for the first time on the way up.

That is well ahead of forecasts made by leading financial strategists at the end of 2023, notes CNBC's Pia Singh. JPMorgan's Chief US equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, for example, expected the broad index to close the year at just 4,200. Even the most optimistic forecast – 5,200 target from John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer – the funny stockpiling didn't catch on this year.

And that's why even though market strategists expect the S&P to finish in 2025 at 6,630, according to an average forecast from CNBC market strategy analysisinvestors should take it with a pinch of salt. Granted, there is a positive sentiment among investors, thanks to Trump's high regard for the stock market as a barometer for his presidency, the gradual release of monetary policy, the prospect of lower corporate taxes, the among other things. However, in markets – as in life – the best laid plans of mice and men often go astray.

Inflation could return unexpectedly – like measles and possibly polio in the US – because of Trump's promised tariffs and the resulting tit-for-tat trade wars. In fact, inflation is already “looking a little bit longer,” he said Goldman Sachs' Vice Chairman Robert Kaplan, former president of the Dallas Fed.

But, despite my skepticism about predictions, I'd love it if there were Bank of America Savita Subramanian has proven to be an advanced market forecaster. Imagine ending 2025 with the S&P at Subramanian's target of 6,666.

— CNBC's Sarah Min, Pia Singh, Sean Conlon and Samantha Subin contributed to this report.