Basic overview
Copper recently received a boost from the Chinese Politburo advertisement that it will adopt a “moderately loose” strategy for monetary policy for 2025 and that it will call for a “more proactive” fiscal policy.
These were key changes in the language that fueled the rally in the Chinese stock and commodity markets. Unfortunately, as has been the case for a long time, the trends were reversed, and we got back to square one very quickly.
Nevertheless, this was a strong move, and perhaps the market is just waiting for the Chinese to walk the talk this time. On Friday, we have the PBoC LPR decision and big rate cuts could trigger another rally in copper.
Copper Technical Analysis – Daily Time Chart
Copper Daily
On the daily chart, we see that copper could not break above the key against
around the 4.31 level where we were also the line of motion
for confluence. The sellers entered with a marked risk overhead against a position to fall into the main trend around the 3.90 level. The buyers will now be looking for buying opportunities on the lower time frames but a break above the main resistance should open for a rally into the 4.70 level next.
Copper Technical Analysis – Timetable 4 hours
Copper 4 hours
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we also had an uptrend defining the bullish moment that became broken, which opened the way for new levels when the sellers piled up – enter more aggressively and the customers fold.
We are now bouncing from another move up and if we get pulled back in again, we can expect the buyers to try again to rally into the 4.31 front. On the other hand, the sellers will want to see the price break below the main uptrend line to increase the bearish bets to low levels.
Copper Technical Analysis – Timetable 1 hour
Copper 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trend defining the current bearish trend on this time frame. It is likely that the sellers will continue to position for a break below the main trend line, while the buyers will look for a higher break to increase the bullish bets into the main resistance. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Catalysts to come
Todaywe have the FOMC Policy Decision. Tomorrow, we will get the latest US jobless claims numbers. On Friday, we end the week with the PBoC LPR decision and US PCE data.
