Gold is down 1.3% on the month and the decline this month is largely due to a more hawkish Fed since last week. Barring a volatile rally in the next week or so, gold looks poised to snap its seven-year winning streak in December 2024 trade.
Gold per month (XAU/USD) per month)
In the past ten years, December has been the second best month for gold behind the usual January rush. The latter have been a bit mixed in recent years but December has been a fairly consistent trend. That's it for now I guess.
The difference this year for gold is that it has seen nine straight months of gains leading up to November. It's a very unique run as seen by the monthly changes above. And even with the recent decline in the past two months, it's still up nearly 27% this year. That puts gold on course for its best year since 2010.
Therefore, it can be argued that this year's regular hot streak is detracting from the usual shopping rush in December and perhaps the following month in January. That's especially with conditions coming up for some profit taking amid a more hawkish Fed and some technical hurdles.
For now, gold is moving back up above its 100-day moving average of $2,609 as it is currently trading at around $2,617. That's a key line in the sand to watch in the coming weeks after the recent double top at the November 25 high of $2,721.
If sellers can push the limits to hold a break below the key level, that will set the foundations for another possible breakout of a seasonal indicator when we get to January trading.
