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November ended on a high note for Bitcoin despite some turbulence last week. BTC experienced it biggest withdrawal from the US elections, with a decline of 8.64 percent within the week to $90,911, before quickly recovering and delivering record-breaking monthly closings at $96,506. Bitcoin ended November with an incredible gain of 37.3 percent, making it the second best month so far of 2024.
This incredible performance continues to underline Bitcoin's strong momentum, positioning it well as we enter December. Historically, December has been a volatile month for Bitcoin, but in half years, the asset is delivered specific average yield changed so far -38.86% compared to yesterday. Given the current bull market, we believe Bitcoin is poised for further gains, although that may be volatile in the short term. Any withdrawal is short term tend to be triggered with ETF outflows and Long-Term Owner (LTH) profit inflows. Last week, ETFs recorded net flows of $135.1 million, with most of these occurring in the first two trading days. LTHs have released a whopping 508,990 BTC since September, increasing the supply coming into the market. While this is still lower than the 934,000 BTC distributed before the March 2024 high, the selling pressure is ongoing need steady demand from ETFs and margin buyers to avoid further withdrawals.
Interestingly, short term custodian (STH) provision is approaching ride high of 3,282,000 BTC. Historically, the final phase of a bull market begins when STH supply breaks pre-half cycle highs. This version pointing out increasing sales participation but also clarifying that the market is dependent on incoming demand to accommodate LTH's profitability.
As Bitcoin moves further into its bull market cycle, the current level of consolidation is a necessary stop to take profits and realign market demand. With strong ETF inflows resuming and selling interest increasing, we believe Bitcoin remains well placed to break through the $100,000 mental barrier.
The US economy also appeared tolerance at the end of 2024, driven by strong consumer spending, steady labor market growth, and moderate inflation expectations – although challenges remain. In October, consumer spending rose 0.4 percent accompanied by a 0.6 percent increase in income, while inflation climb politelywith core PCE up 2.8 percent year over year. Business investment showed mixed signs, as durable goods orders rose slightly, and GDP growth kept constant at 2.8 percent in the third quarter, supported by strong wages and near-record corporate profits.
Consumer confidence in November maximum of 16 monthsdriven by optimism in the labor market and falling inflation expectations, which eased to 4.9 percent. But, still uncertain over inflationary pressures from incoming Trump administration policies. Despite these challenges, it is expected that strong consumer activity and the strength of the labor market will sustain economic momentum through the end of the year.
Hong Kong's push for innovation in digital finance, Celsius Network's breach resolution efforts, and regulatory changes in Russia were in the crypto headlines last week, as stablecoins also gained exposure. Hong Kong Monetary Authority launched the Digital Bond Grant Scheme, offering subsidies of up to HK$2.5 million per issuance to promote tokenised bonds, strengthening Hong Kong's position as a hub for virtual assets. Meanwhile, Celsius Network is initiated the second payment of $127 million to creditors, proceeding with their bankruptcy proceedings. At the same time, his former CEO is facing ongoing legal challenges, underscoring the complexity of corporate accountability in the sector.
In Russia, a new law recognizes digital currencies as property and exempts crypto mining from VAT marks an important step in regulatory clarity, aiming to balance digital asset market growth with structured fees and compliance. At the same time, the stablecoin market arrived market capitalization exceeds $190 billion, with USDt Tether accounting for 70 percent of the total. Driven by the efficiency of cross-border payments and acceptance by traditional financial companies such as Stripe and PayPal, stable is strengthening its role in mainstream finance. These developments highlight the interplay of innovation, regulation, and market dynamics that shape the digital currency industry.
Have a great trading week!
The post Bitfinex Alpha | BTC to break $100k if STH demand meets LTH supply appeared first Bitfinex blog.
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