Morgan Stanley shares a supportive stance on the USD, citing strong US data and trade policy risks. The EUR faces weak domestic growth and tariff-related risks, while the GBP benefits from fiscal-led growth and high rate differentials.
Key points:
-
USD:
- View: Tarvish.
- Philosophy: Strong US data and the reproduction of trade policy risks support continued strength in the USD.
- Shield: Tarvish.
-
EUR:
- View: Neutral with bearish skew.
- Philosophy: Weak domestic growth, tariff-related risk pricing, and declining rates relative to peers weighed on the EUR.
- Shield: Bearish.
-
GBP:
- View: Neutral with bullish skew.
- Philosophy: Fiscal-led growth and persistent inflation keep the BoE on a gradual easing path. High front rate differentials remain supportive of GBP.
- Shield: Tarvish.
Conclusion:
Morgan Stanley expects the USD to maintain its uptrend thanks to strong data and the reproduction of trade policy. The EUR faces challenges due to growth and rate differentials, while the GBP is poised for gains supported by fiscal stability and attractive rate differentials.
For bank transaction ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7-day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here.
Source link
