As we step into 2025, it's time to take a measured and analytical approach to what the year could hold for Bitcoin. Taking into account chain, market cycle, macroeconomic data, and more for convergence, we can go beyond pure speculation to paint a data-driven picture for the coming months.
MVRV Z-Score: Plenty of upside potential
The MVRV Z-Score calculates the ratio between Bitcoin's realized price (the average acquisition price of each BTC on the network) and its market cap. Adjusting this ratio for volatility gives us the Z-Score, which historically gives a clear picture of market cycles.
Check Live Chart π
Currently, the MVRV Z-Score suggests that we still have significant upside potential. While previous cycles have seen Z-Score reach values ββabove 7, I believe anything above 6 indicates overextension, prompting a closer look at other metrics to identify a market peak. Currently, we are proceeding at levels comparable to May 2017 – when Bitcoin was valued at just a few thousand dollars. Given the historical context, there is room for hundreds of percent in potential gains from current levels.
The Pi Cycle Oscillator: Resuming Bullish Momentum
Another essential criterion is the Pi Cycle Top and Bottom Indicatorr, which tracks the 111-day and 350-day moving averages (the latter multiplied by 2). Historically, when these averages cross, it often marks the peak of Bitcoin's price within days.
Check Live Chart π
The distance between these two moving averages has started to increase again, suggesting a new bullish trend. While 2024 saw periods of sideways consolidation, the breakout we are seeing now indicates that Bitcoin is entering a stronger growth phase, which may last several months.
The Abstract Phase of Cycling
Looking at Bitcoin's historical price action, cycles often feature “cooling offs” that last 6-12 months before entering an exponential growth phase. Based on the previous roundswe are nearing this breaking point. Although revenues are expected to be lower compared to earlier rounds, we could still see significant gains.
Check Live Chart π
For context, breaking the previous high of $20,000 in the 2020 cycle resulted in an increase of nearly $70,000βan increase of 3.5x. If we see even a 2x or 3x recovery from the last peak of $70,000, Bitcoin could reach $140,000 – $210,000 in this cycle.
Macro Factors Supporting BTC in 2025
Despite headwinds in 2024, Bitcoin performed strongly, even against strengthening US Dollar Index (DXY). Historically, Bitcoin and the DXY move in opposite directions, so any reversal in the strength of the DXY could fuel Bitcoin's upside.
Check Live Chart π
Other macroeconomic indicators, such as high-yield credit cycles and the global M2 money supply, suggest a better situation for Bitcoin. The contraction in the money supply seen in 2024 is expected to reverse in 2025, setting the stage for an even more favorable environment.
Master Cycle Card: A Long Way to Go
The Bitcoin Cycle Master A chart, which aggregates several on-chain valuation metrics, shows that Bitcoin still has a lot of room to grow before it reaches overvaluation. The upper limit, currently around $190,000, continues to rise, reinforcing the outlook for a steady upward trend.
Check Live Chart π
Decision
Currently, almost all data points are aligned for 2025 bullish. As always, past performance does not guarantee future results, but the data strongly suggests that Bitcoin's best days may still lie ahead, even after 2024 on half optimistic.
For a more in-depth look at this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Bitcoin 2025 – A Data-Driven Forecast
For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features such as live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth business reports, check out Bitcoin Pro Magazine.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.