it was a quieter day in the US after a couple of days of Trump fireworks. The economic calendar was light with key indicators falling again after rising for the first time since February 2024. Before that rise the index had not seen a positive number since March 2022. The index is negative permanently looking for a recession ' it didn't happen.
Canadian producer prices came in lower than expected by 0.2% versus 0.6%. With tax concerns, the price of the USDCAD moved back to the 100/200 hourly MAs between 1.43848 and 1.43912 on two separate tests including the last hour of trading today. In the new trading day, getting above that moving average would mean more buying to the upside. At today's lows, the price held against a support swing area between 1.42899 and 1.4304.
The USDJPY moved higher in today's trade ahead of Friday's BOJ rate decision (0.25% high?). The price is closing above the 200 hour MA at 156.46, but movement on the breakout has been limited. However, if the price can stay above this moving average, the buyers would have more control.
The EURUSD peaked today near the 61.8% retracement from the December high and also near the swing zone between 1.0448 and 1.0461. The sellers continued against the level and pushed the price lower in the US session and back towards the 50% on the hourly chart at 1.0403. The 50% range from the 2022 low is also near that level at 1.0405. So with the two 50% levels close to the same level, the 1.0403 area will be the main barometer in the new trading day. Stay above is more bullish. Move below is more bearish.
Looking at the USD vs the major currencies, the greenback outperformed them all. The daily changes of the USD vs the major currencies show:
- EUR, +0.19%
- JPY, +0.66%
- GBP, +0.31%
- CHF, +0.06%
- CAD, +0.41%
- AUD, unchanged
- NZD +0.19%
Looking at other markets at the end of the day, US stocks closed higher with the S&P making a new intraday high at 6100. The gains could not be sustained and the price closed below the closing high. also at 6090.27 (closed at 6086.37).
The latest figures for the main indices show:
- The Dow industrial average rose 130.92 points or 0.30% at 44156.73.
- The S&P index rose 37.13 points or 0.61% at 6086.3 the index must close7. The highest level was 6090.27. Today's intraday high of 6100.81 is the new intraday high price.
- The NASDAQ index rose 252.56 points or 1.28% at 20,009.34.
- Russell 2000 fell -14.24 points or -0.61% at 2303.71. The Russell 2000 was on a six-day winning streak. That was broken by the recession today.
US yields close higher despite a strong 20 year bond auction with the high yield -1.1 basis points below the WI rate and the bid to cover at 2.75X comfortably above the 6 month average of around 2.5X. The final numbers show:
- 2 years 4.299%, +1.9 basis points
- 5 years 4.438%, +4.1 basis points
- 10 year 4.613%, +3.9 basis points
- 30 year 4.826%, +2.4 basis points
