The European Central Bank's final rate cut for 2024 is expected today, Thursday, 12 December 2024.
- 1315 GMT is 0815 US Eastern time
European Central Bank President Lagarde will continue her press conference half an hour later
JP Morgan's preview of the meeting:
- ECB appears to be heading for a 25bp cut, possibly accompanied by a dovish, but not very meaningful, shift in guidance
- Meanwhile, speakers have not closed the door on a 50bp cut completely, and the statement prepared by President Lagarde for the European Parliament was serious
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Putting all this together with the US election result, we believe that the outlook has changed substantially. The balance of risks has shifted towards weaker growth and weaker inflation. Inflation could take a small hit if retaliatory tariffs are imposed on the US move and the currency depreciates significantly
Goldman Sachs:
- With growth under control and inflation converging on target, our baseline remains that the Governing Council will cut rates by 25bp sequential steps to 1.75% in July, slightly below our estimated range for the neutral phase.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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