Basic overview
The US CPI yesterday's report was in line with expectations and sealed the 25 bps cut next week with the probabilities around 97%. Overall, market prices remained largely unchanged around three rate cuts by the end of 2025.
This contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar although we are still consolidating around the highs. The market is likely to need stronger evidence of accelerating inflation to price in the remaining rate cuts. For now, we reached the highest level in re-prices.
On the AUD side, the RBA
we kept the cash rate unchanged as expected this week, but eased further as we slowly move towards the first rate cut in 2025. The Australian labor market report today came out much better than expected, which pushed out the probability for the first cut to April instead of February.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Time Chart
AUDUSD per day
On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD bounced around the key support
around the 0.6360 level when the buyers entered a position for a rally back to the highs. The sellers need to see the price break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.6267 level next.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour timeframe
AUDUSD 4 hours
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward position around the major line of motion. The buyers, on the other hand, want to see the price break above the transition line and the swing level 0.6471 to shift the tendency to bullish and increase the bets to new highs.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour timeframe
AUDUSD 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a small uptrend that defines the current bullish trend in this timeframe. The buyers will probably continue to push higher, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target new levels. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Catalysts to come
Todaywe get the latest US Jobless Claims numbers and US PPI data.
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