Rate cuts before the end of the year
- Fed: 24 bps (97% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 80 bps
- ECB: 30 bps (80% chance of a 25 bps rate cut at today's decision)
2025: 151 bps
- BoE: 3 bps (90% probability unchanged at next meeting)
2025: 76 pp
- BoC 2025: 61 bps (51% probability unchanged at next meeting)
- RBA 2025: 72 bps (52% probability unchanged at next meeting)
- RBNZ 2025: 108 bps (75% probability of a 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- SNB 2025: 40 bps (97% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
Rate increase by the end of the year
- BoJ: 6 bps (77% probability unchanged at next meeting)
2025: 44 pp
* where you see a 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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