Syrians have big plans for life after Assad. But their neighbors may have other ideas

Syrians who want to chart their own political course, free from outside interference, after the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad may be thwarted by the geopolitical ambitions of the neighbors, who already have a foothold in the country, experts say.

“We all want this to be a time of liberation and self-assertion,” for the Syrians, said Mostafa Minawi, an associate professor of history at Cornell University.

But, with all the outside players already involved in Syria, “I don't know how that would happen.” he said.

“They don't intend to go anywhere.”

These players include Turkey, which has a continuing interest in Syria because of its Kurdish minority; Iran, which, along with Russia, had supported the Assad regime; and Israel, which has invaded Syria's Golan Heights and expressed concern about Islamist rebels.

Turkey

Observers expect Turkey to play a key role in Syria's future, having established a significant military position in the northern strip of the country, controlling areas such as the city of Afrin and parts of the country outside Aleppo.

These areas are buffers against Kurdish groups and provide leverage over Syria's political landscape, analysts say.

“While Turkey may advocate for a decentralized or restructured Syria, it is unlikely to withdraw its influence completely, as its strategic interests remain closely intertwined to Syria's future. Sajjan M. Gohel, director of international security at the Asia-Pacific Foundation in London, said in an email to CBC News.

Turkey's main concern is the Syrian Kurdish forces, which it views as an extension of the Turkey-based separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party (KWP), which seeks Kurdish autonomy. The Turkish government has declared the KWP a terrorist group and does not believe that Kurdish forces in Syria should be present.

The US partnered with these Kurdish forces to run the Islamic State group. But this alliance has been a source of tension between Washington and Ankara, even though both are NATO allies.

Turkey is “very much on the ground,” Minawi said. “They are not going anywhere because there are Kurdish groups along the northern border of Syria who will not allow them to develop their own autonomous region because this threatens the autonomy of Turkey itself. “

Ankara's strongest communication channels, and history of working, with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist rebel alliance that now controls much of Syria, positions it to benefit from the collapse of the Assad regime, Gonul Tol, director of the Middle East Institute's Turkish Program, write in Foreign Affairs.

“Turkey will definitely have a place. Her support for the groups in charge of the case, the long border she shares with Syria, and her military presence in the country give her an important influence,” he wrote.

Iran and Russia

The defeat of Assad, who was supported by the Iranian government, is a major blow to Tehran, which has already suffered a strategic defeat after Israel struck its allies Hamas and Hezbollah. in Gaza and Lebanon respectively.

“Syria represented a launching pad for the Iranian regime to project its influence as far as the Mediterranean Sea, and that has disappeared,” said Jonathan Piron, a historian and Iran expert at the think tank. Etopia in Brussels, to France 24.

“Iran finds itself in a position of unprecedented weakness.”

However, its long-standing support for Assad and its use of Shia militias have created sectarian divisions in the country, meaning Iran can be expected to maintain some form of presence, Gohel said. .

“Even with less Iranian support without Assad in Syria, the militias may still be influential, which could undermine efforts for national unity,” he said.

Minawi agrees that he could not imagine Iran falling apart completely.

“They even said already that they are ready to talk to the interim government, but they are really running away.”

Still, Foad Izadi, Professor at Tehran University, to the Wall Street Journal that Iran has historically found a foothold in broken states, and may be able to maintain some influence in Syria, regardless of the country's political future.

“The democratic government of Syria is not going to be friendly with Israel, it will support the Palestinian cause,” backed by Hamas and Iran-backed Hezbollah, he said.

And if you have chaos, and Syria turns into another Libya, that is also something that Iran can manage. “

At the same time, although not a regional neighbour, Russia played a vital role in supporting the Assad regime, providing military and diplomatic support.

Russia may try to maintain leverage through agreements on military bases, thus ensuring a long-term footprint in Syria, Gohel says.

“The West will want that to end and may be willing to legitimize whatever regime replaces Assad, even recognizing the HTS terrorist group…

Israel

Since the fall of the Assad regime, Israel has carried out heavy airstrikes across Syria. At the same time their troops advanced to a buffer zone of about 400 square kilometers inside its neighbor, which was established by the UN after the 1973 Mideast war.

The airstrikes, the Israeli military said, took out Syrian missiles, drones, fighter jets, attack helicopters, tanks, radar systems and the country's small navy fleet.

They basically eliminated any military capability and infrastructure,” Minawi said. “It's a way to destroy the state before the state even leaves.”

Moving into the buffer zone is prohibited by the UN agreement, and has drawn some international criticism. But Israeli political and military leaders say the move is temporary and is no longer a prelude to entering Syrian territory.

Israel says the immediate goal is to prevent Syrian instability from spreading. The troops will remain “until security on our border is guaranteed,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.

Israel is also using the political vacuum to strengthen its defense positions. Israel has supported some rebel groups in southern Syria as part of a strategy to maintain a buffer zone and prevent hostile forces from operating near the Golan Heights, Gohel said.

“This could continue. For Israel, another priority will be to ensure that Syria is not used as a pawn to help Hezbollah.”

Avi Dichter, an Israeli minister and member of the security cabinet, says the aim is to “establish facts on the ground,” said the The Washington Post reported.

Although HTS and other Sunni opposition groups fought for years against Iranian-backed forces, Dichter said Israel is still “preparing for the possibility that the rebels will come to an agreement with Iran, with Hezbollah.”

Israel “must first see how (the rebels) build their state and their army,” Dichter said, according to the Post.