In a technical analysis shared by crypto analyst Bobby A (@Bobby_1111888) on X, the analysis projects that XRP may reach the $15 mark in this bull rundepending on historical price movement patterns aligning. The analysis delves into XRP's past market cycles, applying percentage-based extrapolation and chart pattern assessments to predict future price paths.
Is the XRP price of $15 real?
Bobby A analysis pitting XRP's performance over its 2017 market cycle against its current 2024 trajectory. Since the breakout of the high range in 2017, marked by a black horizontal line on the chart, XRP gained an initial appreciation of 629%.
In comparison, the asset has appreciated by around 331% since its breakout in 2024.
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By using the principle of percentage point reduction increase by half, as seen from the beginning increase in 2017Bobby A claims that XRP's next impulse could increase by 665%. This calculation places XRP at around $15.00 near the 4.236 Fibonacci extension level.
“XRP appears to be cutting its percentage point gains in half compared to its 2017 market cycle. If XRP cuts its next surge in half from the perspective of a percentage point increase, as it did with this first one, it would place the asset's price at around ~$15.00 near its 4.236 post-rise extension 665% potential,” explained Bobby A.
In particular, the analyst also notices a developing bull flag pattern, a continuous pattern that usually indicates the possibility of a higher move. This bull flag targeting the upper limit of XRP's parallel macro channel, measured around the $10.50 price level. “The current bull flag that the fund is forming targets at the top of its parallel macro channel near $10.50,” Bobby A notes.
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Another analyst, bassii (@cryptobassii), responded with a different perspective based on fractal analysis. Bassii predicts that the ongoing run could be shortened by 42%, with the expectation that the price of XRP will be close to $9, followed by a significant decline.
He analyzes the fractal patterns, saying, “It looks like this run is cut to 42%, it would get us close to $9, then a big drop. But you miss the last part of the 2017 run, IF (a big if) that happens, and we keep the same %, we will get about $30 after months of collection. “
Or even $35?
Bassii mentioned one before analysis of himself where he emphasized the similarities between the 2024 run and the 2017 cycle. In particular, both periods feature five consecutive weeks of green candles, albeit with different magnitudes – around 500% in 2024 compared to 1,200% in 2017.
It says, “2017: 5 weeks of green candles at ~1,200%^, followed by 3 weeks of red candles down 63%. 2024: Also, 5 weeks of green candles at ~500% up (~1/2 of 2017 run), followed by… (so far) 1 week of red candles by how much? You guessed it… 30% down.” The subsequent correction rates also mirror each other, with XRP experiencing a 30% decline in 2024 compared to a 63% drop in 2017, each roughly halving in size.
Based on this, Bassii describes possible future trends based on historical patterns, suggesting that if XRP continues to follow these fractal patterns without a major breakdown, that it could accumulate over several months and possibly up to $30 by September 2025.
Responding to Bassii's analysis, Bobby A expresses cautious optimism, saying, “Yeah but I'm not sure if the momentum will finally come. The next one I'm much more confident in.” Bassii adds to this by highlighting the importance of sticking to fractal patterns and real-time chart developments, saying, “I think it's going to depend on how close we are.” following the fractals and what the chart tells us during this upcoming run. So far it has been followed very closely. The weekly candles for the past 8 weeks have gone blow by blow. I'm not a moon boy, I know how crazy $30-35 sounds. But if we are still watching the 2017 run.”
At press time, XRP was trading at $2.1581.
Featured image created by DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
