Canada will cut carbon emissions by 45 to 50 percent below 2005 levels by 2035, the federal government announced today, signaling a smaller advance than the current target but less than what a leading group of climate experts called for. recommended to the government.
Put more simply, Canada will have to cut carbon emissions by 41 percent over the next 10 years. The new target for the 2035 milestone year will be followed by a multi-year consultation process to plan for reaching the target that will guide climate policy for the next decade.
“We had both ambitious but achievable goals. I want to be as ambitious as Canada, but the federal government can't do it alone,” said Steven Guilbault, Canada's environment and climate change minister.
“If we can work constructively with provinces across the country, Canada will be able to do a lot more, a lot faster.”
of Canada Climate Law Governments must set new targets every five years, and this is part of the country's obligations under the UN Convention that guides international climate action.
The governing Liberals passed the landmark Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act in 2021 to require the government to issue targets — and plans to achieve them — to enshrine Canada's climate action into law. The same law also created the Net-Zero Advisory Body, an independent group of experts that will advise the government on emissions targets and the best ways to achieve those reductions.
Ottawa wants provinces to step up
Earlier this year, those experts recommended that Canada reduce emissions by 50 to 55 percent below 2005 levels by 2035. The new target announced by the government is less ambitious than that.
Guilbeault says his department's internal analysis shows emissions reductions of more than 50 percent are possible, but impossible without provincial support — and the Liberals have struggled to get shrinking provincial premiers on board in recent years.
“Let's be very honest with each other: Some provinces are refusing to act on climate change, (to) even acknowledge that climate change is a problem,” Guilbault said.
“I hope that over time, in the coming years, it will change and we'll be in a different place. But right now, it's the political climate.”
Major emitting provinces such as Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario have challenged federal climate action in court, particularly carbon pricing – although the carbon pricing system is alive and well across the country.
Alberta is trying now opposition Ottawa's proposed cap on emissions from the oil and gas sector, which is a major — and growing — source of emissions.
Finding the right balance when setting goals
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement to combat climate change, countries must gradually build on climate action every five years in the form of new targets, known as nationally determined contributions. The system is designed to peer-pressure countries into greater climate ambitions – a country that risks being seen as lagging if it doesn't improve its targets.
Canada's previous target, released in 2021, aimed to reduce emissions by 40 to 45 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. With its new 2035 target, Canada joins countries such as the UK and Brazil, which have released new targets in previous weeks.
Anna Kanduth, director of the 440 megatons initiative at the Canadian Climate Institute, a data-driven project to track climate progress, says goal setting is about tradeoffs, with pros and cons when it comes to setting more ambitious goals.
A less ambitious target that is more achievable risks “delaying action in the long term, delaying investment in the low-carbon transition”. On the other hand, the goal of rapid emissions reductions “may be more difficult to achieve with the economy, potential challenges for households, and policy.”
“I think that too often we take a pass-fail approach to thinking about targets, when in reality, what's most important is those continued deep emissions cuts on the way to 2050,” Kanduth said.
“I encourage people to think of these as important markers along the way, important milestones that are driving progress … and if we get closer to those goals, I think that's still success.”
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