Basic overview
The USD got a boost recently from another set of hot data like the US Job Openings surprise on the upside and the index of the prices paid in the ISM PMI Services at its highest level since 2023.
Market prices did not change much however and Fed's Waller yesterday kept the hopes of rate cuts alive saying that the pace would be driven by the progress of inflation. As the central bank has turned its focus back to inflation, next week's US CPI report should have a bigger impact on interest rate expectations than tomorrow's US NFP (barring big moves ).
On the AUD side, the RBA cleaned further his stance on the final policy decision as he approaches the cut in the first stage. The market sees a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in February although the first full price cut could be seen in April.
The Australian monthly CPI yesterday showed core inflation easing with the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y coming in at 3.2%. The RBA's inflation target band is 2-3%.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Time Chart
AUDUSD per day
On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD is bouncing off the 2022 lows. This is where the buyers are stepping in with marked risk below the lows to set up for a rally back. into the hand 0.69. On the other hand, the sellers want to see the price break lower to increase the bearish bets to low levels.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour timeframe
AUDUSD 4 hours
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward position around the major line of motion
and the 0.6270 against. On the other hand, the buyers will want to see the price break above that zone to get even more conviction and increase the bullish bets to new highs.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour timeframe
AUDUSD 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a small downtrend defining the current bearish trend on this time frame. It is likely that the sellers will continue to lean forward to position for the break below the lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets. into the 0.6270 resistance. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Catalysts to come
Tomorrowwe finish the week with the US NFP report.
