Here's the data from earlier – a dramatic drop in the unemployment rate:
Westpac is cautious about the product. Analysts at the bank say that the November Labor Force Survey (LFS) delivered unexpected results which, at first glance, might suggest a re-tightening of labor market conditions. . However, they caution against drawing definitive conclusions, highlighting irregularities in labor supply and overall labor market flows that could have skewed the data. WPAC says similar anomalies were seen in late 2023, which later turned out to be false – a 'false head'.
Analysts point to seasonality as a recurring issue and warn of a possible correction in December, underscoring the importance of interpreting the November figures within the broader multi-month trend. Rather than pointing to a major shift, they see the latest data as largely consistent with a gradual “normalization” of labor market conditions. This trajectory does not support the overall weakening suggested by the October numbers or the renewed strengthening seen with the November figures. That said, a review of the past six months confirms that the labor market remains relatively tight, indicating that the normalization process has been slow to unfold.
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AUD Update:
