Bitcoin slipped 12% from its all-time high of $108,353, erasing gains from the second week of December. As Christmas approaches, crypto traders speculate whether the market will see a “Santa Claus” rally this year.
The CoinGecko report says that eight out of ten times between 2014 and 2023, crypto markets rallied around the Christmas holidays. Bitcoin at recent price declines have dampened hopes of a Santa rally this year, and reduced institutional investment inflows have further dampened sentiment.
Will crypto markets see Santa collect in 2024?
The “Santa Claus” rally refers to price gains in crypto during the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the next year, according to the CoinGecko report. The performance of the crypto market, therefore, is important in the one-week time period from December 27, 2024 to January 2, 2025.
Bitcoin's decline from its all-time high has raised concerns among BTC Traders, and hopes of a Santa Claus collection have dampened this cycle. Between 2014 and 2023, crypto markets rallied after Christmas.
Crypto markets experienced a pullback instead of a rally, three times out of ten in the last ten years with a correction as steep as 12.12% before Christmas, during the ICO bubble in 2017.
As BTC hovers around $97,000 on Tuesday, December 24, a pre-Christmas rally is unlikely. BTC could get after Christmas if there is a revival of institutional interest in the largest cryptocurrency.
The total market capitalization of Crypto, excluding Bitcoin, began to recover this week. The daily chart shows bullish signs that support a thesis of gains in the market cap of altcoins, making it likely that alts will be eyeing a rally after Christmas or within the first two trading days of 2025.
Price performance for Bitcoin Q4 2024
Quarterly Bitcoin revenue data from Coinglass shows gains of over 50% in Q4 of both 2024 and 2023, as of December 24. % growth in BTC in Q4.
Bitcoin's performance this quarter has been lackluster, with little evidence to support extended gains in the first two trading days of 2025. Institutional interest in BTC is slowing, reducing capital inflows, and this is evident from the net outflow of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.
With Bitcoin's Q4 performance below the median of 54.80%, it is unlikely that the token will reconfirm its all-time high before the end of the year.
Top 50 performing altcoins
The seasonal altcoin index on Blockchaincenter.net helps to evaluate the performance of the top 50 altcoins over a period of 90 days.
The index reads 49 on a scale of 0 to 100, meaning that the price performance of the top 50 altcoins is lagging behind Bitcoin's performance for holders over the same period.
Although 49 means that it is not altcoin season yet, it shows that almost 50% of the altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in the last 90 days.
The impact of Trump, South Korea and Asian influence on this cycle
Bitcoin prices continue to decline, even as US President Donald Trump has appointed a third pro-crypto candidate. Trump named Stephen Miran as Chairman of his Council of Economic Advisers. Miran is a known crypto advocate and another pro-crypto appointment made by the incoming President.
Before that, Trump appointed pro-crypto candidate Paul Atkins as head of the Securities and Exchange Commission and tech investor David Sacks as artificial intelligence and crypto czar. Although these positions are expected to lead crypto to positive regulation in the US, the price of Bitcoin continues to slide.
Data from Statista shows that South Korea is considered to be the third largest cryptocurrency market in the world and exchanges in Korea account for more than 9% of the global trade volume as of 2021. the Korean Won among the 5 best traded currencies against Bitcoin, according to the data.
South Korea delayed its crypto tax until 2027 and adopted a pro-crypto approach, paving the way for positive developments in Asia and for Bitcoin traders in Korea.
Michael Saylor-led MicroStrategy's plan to keep Bitcoin on its balance sheet has spurred a wave of adoption across Asia. According to an Asia Express report, Chinese selfie app developer Meitu invested in 31,000 ETH and 940 BTC in the spring of 2021. The Japanese company Metaplanet is collecting BTC through the dips and now holds 1,142 BTC , as of December 19.
With large corporations adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet, Asia is focused on this cycle in leading BTC adoption and establishment.
Key stages to watch over the holidays
Bitcoin derivatives traders are bullish on BTC gains across exchanges, Binance, OKX and Deribit. The long/short ratio is above 1 across the exchange platforms and BTC saw a spike in open interest, indicating increased relevance and demand among traders.
More than $38 million in Bitcoin short positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, as bullish sentiment prevails.
Key stages to watch over the holidays:
- Support at $89,376 and $92,500: A daily candle close below the $89,376 level could trigger a breakdown of key support and signal that sellers are ready to pull BTC to the lower end of the imbalance zone on the weekly price chart at $81,500. This could lead to a sudden meltdown and a massive selloff in crypto.
- Resistance at the $100,000 Milestone: A daily candle close above this level will bring the new all-time high above $108,000 back into play as the target. BTC could extend its gains and reconfirm its all-time high, confirming the top of the circle.
Contrary to the current perception among traders, Bitcoin is still very volatile, and the key levels provide guidance as traders navigate the volatility. which is caused by a holiday in the crypto market.
Disclosure: This article does not constitute investment advice. The content and materials on this page are for educational purposes only.
