Bitcoin Price Likely to Fluctuate Between $100,000 and $110,000 Until FOMC Meeting, Says Analyst

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After a flash crash to $89,256 earlier this month, Bitcoin (BTC) made a rapid recovery, reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of $108,786 on January 20th. However, according to a crypto analyst, further upside may be limited until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting later this month.

Bitcoin to be pegged to range to FOMC meeting

The world's largest cryptocurrency has been on a bullish path since November, fueled by Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. Over the past three months, BTC has risen from around $67,000 to $104,536 at the time of writing, posting gains of over 50%.

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However, crypto analyst Krillin predicts that BTC may continue to “split” in the $100,000 to $110,000 range until the FOMC meeting. The analysis suggests that, unless the Bank of Japan takes extraordinary policy measures, it is unlikely that BTC will break out of this area before the end of the month.

Currently, the CME FedWatch tool pointing out 99.5% probability that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates at the upcoming meeting. Krillin expects the market dump to follow the expected hawkish meeting, which may be partially offset by a dovish-sounding press conference pretending at future quantitative easing (QE).

For the uninitiated, QE is a monetary policy where central banks inject money into the economy by buying government bonds and other financial assets to lower interest rates and stimulate economic activity. . This increased money supply can weaken fiat currencies, which could drive investors to assets like BTC, increasing its price as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.

Krillin's prediction aligns with the recent market observation which says that BTC's profit-taking has declined by 93% since its December peak, and that the long-term holders are back in rally mode, preparing for the next move up. However, it is anybody's guess how long the current level of consolidation will last.

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Ali Martinez notes A sharp decline in capital inflows into the digital asset market, from $134 billion on December 10 to $43.37 billion. This low liquidity could lead to sharp price movements, increasing liquidity risk for leveraged traders.

Will BTC be higher in Q2 2025?

While BTC awaits the FOMC meeting to determine its next price move, some analysts remain optimistic that the digital currency could reach the peak of the market cycle in Q2 2025 as more institutions accept the fund under favorable rules.