VanEck's head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, has outlined a detailed forecast for the digital currency market through 2025.
Sigel predict That Friday Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $180,000 in the first quarter before receiving a correction. The Ethereum analysis projects (ETH) reaching beyond $6,000, and coins like Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI) could achieve $500 and $10, respectively.
Sigel expects this initial peak to be followed by a market correction, with Bitcoin pulling back 30% and altcoins experiencing deeper declines of up to 60% during the summer months.
To identify market tops, Sigel highlights several key indicators for investors to monitor. The research points to sustained high funding levels as a key indicator.
He noted that when traders consistently pay funding rates above 10% for three months or longer to bet on Bitcoin price increases, it usually indicates excessive speculation in the market.
The analysis also emphasizes the importance of monitoring unprofitable profits among Bitcoin holders. When a large proportion of holders hold paper gains with a profit-to-cost ratio higher than 70%, it often indicates market euphoria.
Bitcoin's market dominance is another essential indicator. Sigel warns that a drop below 40% could indicate excessive speculation in altcoins, which is typical of late market behavior.
The research focuses on the current market trend largely due to the impact of the election of Donald Trump and the projected positions of his administration. The expectedly crypto-friendly leadership team, including JD Vance as VP and Paul Atkins as SEC Chairman, is proposing a shift from previously restrictive policies to a framework that positions Bitcoin as a strategic asset .
After the summer correction, Sigel predicts a market recovery in the fall of 2025. Major cryptocurrencies are likely to regain their previous highs by the end of the year.
This projection assumes continued institutional adoption and supportive regulatory developments under the new administration.
This market outlook provides investors with specific price targets and warning signs to monitor, while recognizing the impact of political developments on the crypto market.
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