Bitcoin has made amazing achievements, crossing the $2 trillion capitalization mark and reaching a price of $100,000! Currently, 94.25% of the total 21 million Bitcoins have been mined, making Bitcoin the seventh largest asset in the world, surpassing both money and Saudi Aramco Oil & Gas Company. In particular, ETFs have become the main players in the Bitcoin market in 2024, holding more than 1.13 million BTC, with total investment flowing into spot ETFs in the US reaching $35.5 one billion. Bitfinex Alpha 135 is the last edition of 2024, overall, analysts have an optimistic view of 2025 ahead.
Since a bear market low of $15,487 in November 2022, Bitcoin has skyrocketed over 573%, with an increase of 130% year to date. The current bull market is showing strong demand from institutions, especially through ETFs and spot trading. Historical data shows where we are the center of a circle growth, after the halving event in April 2024. The market is likely to peak around Q3 – Q4 2025, which is about 450 days after the halving.
Circular signs
Signs like MVRV, NUPLand Bullish-bearish market cycle signal show that the market is still growing, but not too hot. Models that predict cycle peaks suggest that the price of Bitcoin could reach between $145,000 and $189,000. Compared to previous cycles, the growth of Bitcoin this time looks more stable.
Key trends and future prospects
- We expect any price correction in 2025 as well it will not be too strongdue to capital flows from institutions.
- Effect of a half year: According to history, the years after a half year often see the strongest price increase.
- Cycle target: Lowest Bitcoin price received $145,000 by mid-2025and it can even go up to $200,000 if the situation is favorable.
Although Bitcoin prices may change in the first quarter of 2025, overall the trend remains positive, thanks to ETFs, institutional adoption, and Bitcoin's increasingly important position in financial markets the world However, investors need to be wary of overbought signs as Bitcoin approaches its cyclical peak.
The US economic context: Bitcoin price performance in 2025 also depends on the US economic landscape. Currently, the US economy is stabilizing in key areas.
- Labor market adjust regularlywith the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.2% due to increased labor supply rather than job losses.
- Salary growth still at a good level (4% annually), supporting consumer spending. Sectors such as healthcare and entertainment also showed gains get over it of the economy.
- The Fed is expected to be cautious in cutting interest rates to balance a cooling labor market and inflationary pressures.
- The housing market has a steady demand, expectation Home prices will increase by 2.4% despite high mortgage rates. However, affordability remains a challenge, especially for first time home buyers.
- Inflation remains a concern, with headline CPI steady at 3.3%, showing constant pressure on stable vehicle and commodity prices. The Fed is struggling to meet its 2% inflation target.
- Strong economic growth (3.8% expected in the fourth quarter) supports the Fed's monetary easing, but adjustments are needed if inflation continues to rise.
Stock market outlook: The stock market outlook under the new US President – Donald Trump is driven by the policies to support economic growthincluding tax cuts and regulatory relief. This benefits businesses, finance and consumer choice. The housing market is moderating and housing supply is improving, which could support property-related stocks. However, home loan interest rates are still high so home buyers may face problems, and this may limit the profits of companies in this sector. History shows that the stock market often increases after the Fed lowers interest rates. S&P 500 and Dow Jones has grown significantly following recent interest rate cuts. However, risks such as inflation, international political tensions and financial constraints can have a negative impact on the stock market in the long term.
In short: 2025 is expected to be an optimistic but cautious year, with sustained economic growth, structural challenges and policy changes. While stability across sectors is encouraging, external risks and inflationary pressures remain factors to watch.
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The post Bitfinex Alpha | Forecast for 2025: Waiting for new peaks, but also full of fluctuations! appeared first Bitfinex blog.
