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Driven by a strong combination of geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors, and the growing “Trump trade” narrative, BTC volatility has increased, taking a sharp turn. 6.2 percent correction within a week last week before the comeback. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the US presidential election on near-term prices, where a Republican victory is widely seen as bullish for risk assets like Bitcoin. The correlation between Trump's election chances and the upward trajectory of Bitcoin has increased.
The expectation around the election is a boost surrender in options activity. Options expiring on key dates around the election command higher prices, with implied volatility expected height at 100 daily volumes on Nov. 8, just after Election Day—suggesting that the market is bracing for a potential upset. Regardless of the election outcome, short-term volatility is expected to be higher than normal although we remain confident in long-term price appreciation.
Despite recent corrections, Bitcoin has emerged amazing durability from the September drop to $52,756, accumulating 30 percent through October. There is also seasonality on the Bitcoin side: Q4 has been consistently stable in half years, with an average quarterly return of 31.34 percent. This strong seasonal effect, along with record open interest in Bitcoin options and futures, reflects the optimism among market participants heading into the latter part of the a year
Supporting this optimism is the steady increase in call options for expiration on December 27, with a particular focus on $80,000 strikes. As open options of interest rising to new heightsthe market is showing signs of a post-election bullish scenario, which could propel Bitcoin towards – and beyond – the all-time high of $73,666.
In summary, the confluence of election uncertainty, the “Trump trade” narrative, and a favorable Q4 season is creating a perfect storm for Bitcoin, promising an interesting time ahead regardless of noisy price movements. into the election in two weeks.
In the broader US economy, the labor market has emerged special tolerance against recent natural and industrial disturbances. Initial jobless claims fell to 227,000 last week, despite the challenges of Hurricane Milton and an extended strike at plane maker Boeing. Significantly, there were hurricane-related layoffs in Florida counterbalanced with declines in jobless claims in other states, indicating a strong job environment outside of the affected sectors. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book also characterized employment as “stable” with little variation reported across sectors.
In the housing sector, the US market is currently experiencing a difference. New home sales rose in September, driven by a temporary decline in mortgage rates. On the other hand, existing home sales fell to their level minimum standards since 2010, largely due to a “lock-in effect,” where homeowners with low-rate mortgages are reluctant to sell and face higher rates on new purchases. The price is still reasonable a big obstacle for many first time buyers as prices continue to rise. Although recent rate relief has boosted new home sales, a sustained recovery in the housing market will depend on broader mortgage rate stability or possible intervention by the Federal Reserve.
Emory University's recent investment in digital assets marks a move in that direction adopt a crypto institution. The university disclosed stakes in Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust and Coinbase shares, totaling approximately $15.9 million, indicating the adoption of digital assets among traditional institutions.
Microsoft's shareholders meeting is to vote on a proposal to Bitcoin analysis as a financial asset. While the board opposes the proposal, citing instability and regulatory concerns, even a small portion from Microsoft's $76 billion reserves would have a significant impact on BTC's legitimacy as a corporate asset.
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