Champions League 2024/25: Why it matters where each team finishes in the league table and the knock-on effects

We are right at home in the league stage of the Champions League – with the five British teams looking to achieve different feats in the new format.

The new Swiss-style competitive system has divided opinion, with each team fielding a massive 36-league team and facing eight different opponents throughout the season.

Liverpool don't seem to be worried after winning each of their opening five league games so far without conceding a goal. Fifteen points have almost finished them in the top eight points, which secures a place in the last 16 points.

But can Arne Slot now turn his team around? That's because there's an incentive to keep winning because every finishing spot matters in this new format of the Champions League.

Read below to see all the changes to the rest of the Champions League format…

Who qualifies for the league stage?

To gain automatic qualification into the round of 16 in March, teams must finish in the top eight.

Those in ninth to 24th go into a round of two-legged games in February, with the winners taking the remaining eight points in the last 16.

Those who finish ninth to 16th will be seeded for the play-offs, so they will have the second leg at home. Those from the 17th to the 24th will be unseeded, so the first leg will be at home.

Teams finishing anywhere from 25th to 36th will be kicked out of this season's competition, without a chance at the Europa League.

OK, but if we're in the top eight, does it matter if I finish first or eighth?

There are. The way the Champions League league stage works with the final league standings gives you a unique path – and unique opponents – in the knockout stage.

The graphic below shows the competition tree for the rest of the competition. For the first time ever, the knockout rounds are decided by league standing – with no individual draws for the last 16, quarter-finals and beyond.

For example, the teams that finish first or second in the league level will face a team that finishes in 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th.

Contrast that with the team that finishes seventh or eighth, who might play a team that finishes 23rd or 24th – but is also in danger of facing the team in ninth or tenth place – which could be the main European outfit.

The advantage for the team that finishes first or second is that they will be guaranteed to play a team in the 'middle' of the final Champions League table. By finishing lower you risk going on a better side.

Is it really an advantage to finish on top?

It's not necessary. Especially this season.

The early struggles of teams such as Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain mean a top European team could end up in the “middle” of the Champions League table – thus coming up against one of the best performing sides .

Currently, Liverpool are at the top of the league table – but the teams in 15th, 16th, 17th and 18th are Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, Manchester City and PSV Eindhoven.

So if teams don't perform as well as expected at league level, it could create tight ties in the last 16, taking away the advantage of finishing in the top spots .

Is there a difference between finishing the ninth and the 24th?

Again, yes. A big man. And it all depends on the play-offs.

The new format of the Champions League means that the team that finishes in ninth place faces the team in 24th in the round of matches. Tenth play 23rd, 11th play 22nd and so on.

So if you just miss out on a top eight finish, the blow is lessened by playing the worst qualified teams from the league stage. So the higher you finish, the 'easier' game you get.

But then again, if teams like Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain are struggling at league level, you could have the best teams meeting each other in the finals.

How many points do you need to guarantee a top eight finish?

The supercomputer Opta believes 16 points will almost certainly be enough to finish in the top eight, which then guarantees you a place in the last 16 in March.

The data also believes that 15 points could be enough to enter eighth place, with that number of points being enough in 73 percent of the 50,000 Opta simulations of the league level. Liverpool reached that milestone last month after five wins in five games.

Meanwhile, 14 points is unlikely to be enough for a top eight finish.

How many points do you need to finish top-24?

To finish in the top 24, which guarantees you at least a play-off spot, Opta believes 10 points it will almost certainly guarantee you a place in that round.

Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa have already reached that point Celtic and Manchester City are one win away from that total.

However, nine points could be enough to finish 24th, with that number of points being enough in 69 percent of the simulations. City and Celtic are one point away from that total, currently.

But only eight points are at risk of elimination, with that number being enough in just 16 percent of the symbols.

Opta Predictions: Arsenal, Liverpool in top eight | Villa to get Real Madrid

The supercomputer Opta says Arsenal and Liverpool They are expected to finish in the top eight, with Arne Slot's side staying top and the Gunners third.

In its current form, City of Manchester and Celtic They are expected to finish 15th and 18th – which would mean they would face each other in the final in February.

There would be a mouth-watering tie for 13th place Aston Villawho would get Real Madrid – expected to finish 21st – in the playoffs, with the first leg at the Santiago Bernabeu.

The supercomputer also says Paris Saint-Germain finishing in 26th place – so they would be eliminated from all European competitions at the first hurdle.

Who are the Champions League supercomputer favourites?

Liverpool are currently favorites to win the Champions League, with Slot's side given a 20 per cent chance of winning the trophy in Munich after a strong start to the season.

Arsenal third favorite with 13.2 percent – just ahead of Pep Guardiola Man City – fourth favorite with 9.3 percent.

Inter Milan is the second choice with 15.8 percent – with Atalanta, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen and Lisbon sports making up the top ten.

Aston Villa have a 0.6 percent chance of winning the entire tournament, which is twice as likely as Celtic on 0.3 percent.