Basic overview
Copper has been steadily rallying since the beginning of the month as the market looks forward to improving global growth in 2025. As a reminder, China's Politburo announced last year that it will accept “moderately loose” monetary policy strategy for 2025 and call for a “more proactive” fiscal policy.
We have not yet seen the Chinese officials to “walk the talk” but the market is still hoping for stronger mitigation measures this year. US manufacturing activity has been picking up with the ISM Manufacturing PMI now almost back to expansion. Global central bank easing usually leads to increased activity and should be a tailwind for the copper market.
The focus remains on the Chinese economy and Trump's tariffs. An easier tariff policy is likely to boost the market as worries about slower global growth and a negative impact on the Chinese economy should disappear. Conversely, tighter policies are likely to weigh on risk sentiment and copper prices.
Copper Technical Analysis – Daily Time Chart
Copper Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that copper recently broke above the two majors line of motion and the key 4.31 the face. The buyers continued to increase the bullish bets on each break higher with the 4.70 level as the next target. On the other hand, the sellers will want to see the price fall back below the 4.31 level to start aiming to fall back to the low levels.
Copper Technical Analysis – Timetable 4 hours
Copper 4 hours
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we now have a strong support area around the 4.31 level where we also get the 38.2% Fibonacci download rate for confluence. That is where we can expect buyers to step in with marked risk below the support to set up for a rally into the 4.70 level next. The sellers, on the other hand, look for a lower break to get in for new levels.
Copper Technical Analysis – Timetable 1 hour
Copper 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a small protection zone around the 4.40 level. If the price were to pull back into the resistance, the sellers are likely to enter there to target a break below the 4.31 support, while the buyers will look for a break higher until the bids bullish rise to new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Catalysts to come
this week pretty empty on the data front with only a couple of major releases scheduled for the second part of the week. Today, we have President Trump as the 47thth The President of the USA. On Thursday, we'll get the latest US jobless claims numbers, and on Friday we'll finish with Flash US PMIs.
