Basic overview
Crude oil has been going for months between the 67.00 support and the 72.00 resistance while the market continued to gauge the future conditions.
On one hand, we had the Trump effect which could be seen as bearish for fear of tariffs and a slowdown in global growth as other countries would likely retaliate. In addition, there was also an increase in supply and geopolitical discounting by the Trump administration as negative reasons.
On the other hand, our increase in global growth expectations was due to global central bank easing, Trump's growth policies and Chinese officials promising much more on the monetary and fiscal policy side.
The economic data has been pointing to a re-acceleration in activity that could continue for longer without tightening in financial conditions. That led to an upside breakout in crude oil with the bullish trend likely to intensify in the coming months.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily Chart
Crude oil per day
On the daily chart, we see that crude oil broke out above the the face around right 72.00. The buyers went in to rally into the next major technical level around the main one line of motion. That's where we can expect the sellers to step in with a marked risk above the trendline to position for a drop back to the 72.00 level.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Timetable 4 hours
Crude oil 4 hours
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trend line defining the current bullish trend. The buyers will likely continue to position for further upside, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target a pullback to the 72.00 level.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Schedule
Crude oil 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, there is not much else we can add here because the buyers will be looking for a bounce on the trend line, while the sellers will be looking for a break lower. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Catalysts to come
Todaywe have Fed's Waller speaking, US ADP and FOMC Minutes. Tomorrow, we will get the latest US jobless claims numbers. On Friday, we finish the week with the US NFP report.
