Here is the dot plot from the September 2024 meeting:
Here is the NEW dot plot from the December 2024 meeting:
Below is a table of economic forecasts for GDP, Unemployment, PCE inflation and Core PCE inflation from the December 2024 meeting.
What are the changes for 2025:
Summary of the economic projections for EOY 2025:
- GDP up 0.1%: 2.1% vs 2.0% in September
- Unemployment rate down -0.1%: 4.3% vs. 4.4% in September
- PCE inflation higher by 0.4%: . 2.5% vs. 2.1% in September
- Core PCE inflation was higher by 0.3%: 2.5% vs 2.2% in September
Answer:
- 34 basis points of cuts now in Fed Funds forecasts versus 48 basis points cuts before the decision
In the US stock market (6 minutes)
- Dow went down from 43551 to 43405 now
- S&P went from 6058 to 6027 now
- Nasdaq went from 20146 to 20004
In the US debt market:
- 2-year 4.255% To 4.31% now
- 10 year 4.401% to 4.447% currently
- 30 years 4.612% to 4.635% currently
