The official PMIs from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will be released today. I have mentioned 'green shoots' beginning, tentatively, to appear for the Chinese economy. PMIs have been important for this. In H2 of 2024 production has improved, slowly, while services have continued to expand.
Manufacturing PMI:
- July 2024: 49.4, showing contraction in manufacturing activity. Production expanded slightly (50.1), but new orders fell (49.3).
- August 2024: Remained at 49.4, a continued decline as challenges continued in the sector.
- September 2024: Rose to 49.8, indicating a slower pace of bending. The product grew the most in five months.
- October 2024: Rise to 50.1, entering expansion territory for the first time in six months, showing the initial impact of fiscal stimulus.
- November 2024: Better further to 50.3, showing a slight expansion with strengthening domestic demand.
Non-Manufacturing (Services) PMI:
- July 2024: 51.5, indicating an expansion in services, but at a slower pace.
- August 2024: Decreased to 51.0, still expanding but with less movement.
- September 2024: Decrease to 50.0, indicating stagnation in the sector.
- October 2024: Forward slightly up to 50.2, suggesting a mild recovery.
- November 2024: Held steady at 50.0, showing stable but controlled performance.
Both manufacturing and services are expected to continue to expand in today's data. Although not shown on the calendar, the PMI Composite is also expected to expand. It was 50.8 in November.
***
Also not featured on the calendar are December data expectations and forecasts for Australian Treasury Aggregates, AKA Private Sector Credit data.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) usually releases its Treasury Aggregates data on the last business day of each month at 11:30am Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST). Therefore, the December 2024 figures should be published today Tuesday, 31 December 2024.
However, due to the holiday season, there may be changes to the publication schedule. For example, the November 2024 Financial Collections were released earlier than usual on Friday, December 20, 2024. So far, I have not found any indication of a change for the December release. Therefore, I expect the December 2024 Financial Collections to be published on 31 December 2024 at 11:30am AEST.
- 0030 GMT, 1930 US Eastern Time
- This image from the ForexLive economic data calendar, get to it here.
- The times in the leftmost column are GMT.
- The numbers in the right hand column are the 'previous' output (the previous month/quarter as the case may be). The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the expected consensus median.
