EUR/USD hourly chart
Traders have little desire to deviate from the current price action to be honest. The euro remains on the softer side as the ECB reaffirms more rate cuts to follow next year. That sees traders pricing in a ~89% rate cut for January for now. Meanwhile, the Fed is definitely going to cut rates by 25 bps this week and possibly stop in January. That is the biggest unknown at the moment and traders are waiting for that before they take an answer.
Therefore, we are caught in a bit of a rut for EUR/USD with price action pinned down by key near-term levels as seen above. The 200-hour moving average (blue line) is primarily holding back upside moves at this time. That's seen at 1.0525 right now, coinciding with big options ending the day.
Taken together, that should stop the price action at least for European trading later. The main risk event today is US retail sales data.
But in the context of this week, traders are all looking to the Fed for the next set of announcements. So, we may not get meaningful or lasting moves until we hear from the Fed and Powell's statement late Wednesday.
