It was supposed to be a relaxing day full of tacos, swimming and watching people surf. But it almost ended in disaster. Noah Mintz was on a trip to Sayulita, Mexico, with an ex-girlfriend, and went for a swim at the beach. The water looked good.
When he was returning to the beach, the water just below the depth of his knee, and the ocean on his back, he was knocked down by an uncertain wave.
“I was just lying straight down in the water, face down, unable to move,” said Mintz, 54, of Toronto. “I just thought to myself, 'This is it. This is the time. I'm going to die right now.'”
A rogue wave is defined as one that is 2.2 times larger than the average wave around it. They can be deadly, and catch people by surprise. They can occur when sea swells collide and combine to form a larger wave, respectively research published by National Geographic.
According to the US National Ocean Servicerogue waves can also be created in a storm, when regular waves move against the normal direction of the current and combine with others to form one large, long-lasting wave.
Although it is difficult to quantify the number of false waves – no group finds them or is injured by them – Mintz is far from the only one who has experienced their power. One of the largest rogue waves ever recorded was just off the coast of BC
Johannes Gemmrich, who studies these waves, says there needs to be more awareness of what they can do.
Most people think of a rogue wave as something that might hit a cruise ship or shipping vessel in the middle of the ocean. But they are more than that, he says.
“I think most people are not aware of rogue waves, especially since it can also happen on the coast where most people interact with the ocean, ” said Gemmrich, an oceanographer at the University of Victoria.
The power of waves
As Mintz lay face down in the water, he recalled key moments in his life, trying to find the perfect one to focus on when he died.
Fortunately, it wasn't necessary. Instead, the old man was able to find it in the water and convert it. He was then lifted onto a surfboard and brought ashore, paralyzed but conscious.
“I know not to turn your back to the ocean, but I didn't really think that,” Mintz said.
His neck was broken in two places, along with a few scrapes and cuts. After surgery and a few months of rehabilitation, he was able to make a full recovery, aside from some nerve damage on his left side.
He was able to re-emerge relatively unscathed from his experience. But that is not always the case.
A huge wave hit Ventura Beach in California last week, sending eight people to the hospital. But was it really a fake wave? About that producer Lauren Bird breaks down the science of false waves and why they are so unpredictable.
Mary MacNutt, Tassie Notar and another friend were on holiday in Chacala, Mexico, in December 2023. They had just arrived, and MacNutt and Notar, who were 66 and 70 at the time, wanted to go for a swim.
There were some waves, so the couple decided to move down the beach to find a calmer place. But as Notar and MacNutt, both from Toronto, were enjoying the sun and the sea, a big wave started coming their way.
“This wave was a movement. This wave was a monster wave,” said Notar, who believes it was about four meters high. “It was so high. And we both turned and started swimming to the shore immediately.”
They didn't know what to do. The wave was coming fast, and they were not close enough to the shore to bring her back.
After the wave hit, Notar couldn't find her friend. She ran to the beach, screaming for help, but no one moved. Then she turned to see someone giving MacNutt CPR on the beach.
“We didn't know then, but she was already a quadriplegic,” said Notar.
Weeks later, she was removed to Toronto. She needed support to breathe, and they were told that she was unlikely to get better. She requested to be taken off life support, and died on January 7, 2024.
“The whole time she kept encouraging me. She said, 'I've had a very good life. Don't worry, I've had a very good life.'”
What could be done?
Notar knows what else they could have done when they saw the wave, and if there was a way to avoid it.
Gemmrich, the oceanographer, says if it's far away, he says, you can try to get to land. But even that is difficult, because he moves much faster than any swimmer can.
“The best way is to dive into him. So wait until he gets close or back away slowly, but when he gets close, dive into him, because the force decreases with depth there.”
And instead of trying to avoid it, Gemmrich says the answer is early detection.
Early warning system
The study of rogue waves began in the 1990s, when one such wave was measured by a scientifically equipped drilling platform. Before that, they were thought to be tall tales told by sailors.
“Even scientists thought it was impossible for a wave to be twice as loud as the background wave,” Gemmrich said.
Research on rogue waves took off in the early 2000s. In 2020, what some consider to be the truest rogue wave ever recorded was measured at 17.6 meters high, off the coast of Ucluelet, BC, well above the average six meter waves around on.
Gemmrich has studied that particular wave. He says that a false wave tends to happen once every few days, but if it is small, or if there are no people or boats nearby, no one notices.
And although the risk that it would go to a height and place that would cause danger to people is small, Gemmrich says that it is important that people are prepared.
That is why he has been developing an early warning system. He can't predict exactly where and when a rogue wave will form, but he can anticipate when conditions are ripe for one.
It gives the expected wind patterns for the next few days, along with the physics of ocean waves. It can then predict the generation and evolution of the wave field. It wants to be implemented in regular forecasts.
“That model is now running as a research model and will soon be transferred to Environment and Climate Change (Canada) to be included in the public forecasting area,” said Gemmrich.
Notar wishes that there had been better signs when she and McNaught went swimming. She is still pushing for better signage near the resort where they stayed, especially to fake waves.
“A fake wave, for me, I think if people don't know what it is, it feels scary. And it's different than a red flag on a beach,” said Notar.
Mintz learned from the experience. He is not afraid of the ocean and is still willing to go for a dip. But he is a little more cautious on the beach.
“Like dealing with a wild animal, it's completely unpredictable. And you never turn your back on the ocean until you're out of it.”
