- Are Crude Oil Futures to buy or sell today (January 06, 2025)?
- Is Gold Futures being bought or sold today (January 06, 2025)?
- Bank of America sees potential for a strong rally in China in H2 2025
- PBOC is expected to issue record number of offshore yuan bills in Hong Kong this month
- Goldman Sachs cuts its gold forecasts, gold not to reach US $ 3000 in 2025
- North Korea has fired another ballistic missile
- It looks like Trudeau will retire, but he hasn't made a final decision yet
- Trump held out taxes, tax cuts, US energy
- Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is tight-lipped about rate hike timing – data dependent
- CAD is pumping harder to open the new week
- China December Caixin Services PMI 52.2 (vs. 51.5 in November)
- The Shanghai Stock Exchange promises to deepen the opening of capital markets
- CAD PM Trudeau plans to resign before Wednesday's national caucus meeting
- China's financial media say the PBoC statement sends a stronger signal of a stable yuan FX rate
- PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate for today at 7.1876 (vs. expected > 7.20)
- All eyes on the PBoC yuan reference rate today – will it be above 7.20?
- MUFG expects EUR/USD below parity – Trump tariffs will hit quickly
- Japan PMI final services (December 2024): 50.9 (50.5 prior)
- UBS says take a cautious view on China's equities – weak consumption, looming US tariffs
- MUFG bearish GBP, citing impending Bank of England cuts, gas price vulnerability
- UK News – More than half of businesses plan to increase prices in the next three months.
- Weekend – The People's Bank of China promised more stimulus to encourage spending
- Potential Australian dollar RBA intervention getting some attention (ps. not going to happen)
- Australian Judo Bank Services PMI for December 50.8 (prev 50.5)
- China services PMI data forthcoming: What to expect & how it will affect equities and yuan
- Trading Ideas Thread – Monday, January 6, visual charts, technical analysis, ideas
- Monday morning open rates – indicative forex prices – 06 January 2025
- Weekly Market Forecast (06-10 January)
- Trudeau expected to resign 'by Monday' – report
- Fed's Kugler: Job Not Done on Inflation
- Newsquawk Week Ahead: US NFP, FOMC Minutes, ISM Services PMI, China and EZ Inflation
Over the weekend we had comments from Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler along with the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary Daly, saying that while progress had been made to bring down inflation there was work to do still do. The valuation seemed to weigh on gold throughout the session here, keeping it below US$2650.
The impact on FX, however, was hard to pin down. EUR, AUD, NZD, GBP all rose.
CAD responded more to a sign that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is likely to resign. An announcement could come as soon as Monday. The USD//Coin exchange rate dropped to 1.4400 US dollars.
USD/JPY was trending, to highs just over 157.80. Today was the first session of the year for Japanese markets after holidays on January 1, 2 and 3. Data from Japan today was Services (up from November) and Composite (down from November) PMIs, slightly mixed. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke but did not give a clear indication of the timing of a rate hike. The president of the Dai-ichi Life company, Toshiaki Sumino, expects a BoJ rate hike this month (the BoJ meets on January 23 and 24).
China was interesting. On Friday USD/CNY crossed 7.3, leading to much speculation that the People's Bank of China was cutting back its support for the yuan and that Monday's reference rate would be set above 7.2. In fact, USD/CNY climbed above 7.3275 (CNY hit a 16-month low). However, the People's Bank of China set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1876, well below 7.2. In addition, PBOC-backed newspaper Financial News reaffirmed the central bank's “strong” support for the yuan. News also that the PBOC is to issue a record number of offshore yuan bills in Hong Kong this month, aiming to stabilize the yuan's exchange rate amid pressures 'increasingly. Issuing yuan bills offshore is a strategy to absorb excess liquidity in the offshore market, reducing downward pressure on the currency.
Data from China today was the Caixin Services PMI, reported at a 7-month high of 52.2 (vs. expected 51.7 and November 51.5). Composites fell to 51.4, from 52.3 in November, weaker manufacturing output slowed overall growth to the slowest since September.
Trump reiterated his key policy plans today:
