- Manufacturing PMI 42.5 vs 43.1 expected and 43.0 previously.
- Services PMI 51.0 vs 49.3 expected and 49.3 previously.
- Composite PMI 47.8 vs 47.5 expected and 47.2 previously.
Main results:
- Germany's HCOB Flash composite PMI output index (1) at 47.8 (November: 47.2). 2-month high.
- HCOB Flash Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index (2) at 51.0 (November: 49.3). 2-month high.
- PMI HCOB Flash Manufacturing Index in Germany (4) at 41.7 (November: 43.1). 3-month low.
- HCOB Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI(3) at 42.5 (November: 43.0). 3-month low
Opinion:
Commenting on the flash PMI data, Dr Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank said:
“The German services sector seems to be setting up for a better than expected Christmas season. The index of business activity entered growth territory after falling below 50 in November. than the previous month.
The manufacturing sector certainly didn't deliver any holiday cheer. Output fell much faster than in the previous two months, and new orders fell at one of the fastest rates all year. This is certainly not a big surprise, given all the negative news about companies planning to restructure. What really catches the eye is the movement in prices in the services sector. Input price inflation rose sharply in December, hitting its highest level since April.
Normally, in an unstable economy, you would expect deflationary forces. The fact that this is not happening suggests that old economic rules such as “slower growth means slower inflation” may no longer apply. Workers continue to receive relatively high wage increases – negotiated wages grew by 8.8% in the third quarter according to the Bundesbank. A piece of this was passed on to consumers, with the product price index rising for the second month in a row.
It is still somewhat uncertain whether the services sector is in slow decline or on the verge of stability leading to recovery. Services employment has been carefully cut since July, and new business has been slowly declining since September. If this trend continues, there is likely to be a decline in this sector.
However, with real wages rising, people's spending power has increased, which should boost consumption and is particularly good for the services sector. We are likely to expect a recovery in the German services sector, fueled by better sentiment about future activity and the upcoming snap elections in February, which should bring more political clarity . “
Common PMI in Germany
Source link
