Basic overview
Gold fell back within the previous range after hotter than expected US inflation figures.
In the bigger picture, the market remains largely unchanged around three rate cuts by the end of 2025 but the rise in real yields is weighing on the market due to stronger growth and inflation expectations more stable.
In addition, tomorrow we have the FOMC decision and although the central bank is likely to be in line with market prices, we could have a complete hawkish event. Market participants might want to err on the defensive going into the event that could limit the upside in gold.
Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Chart
Gold every day
On the daily chart, we can see that gold fell all the way back to the previous consolidation levels. We now have a larger range between the 2721 the face
and the support 2600. It seems that market participants will continue to play the field until we get a breakout on both sides.
Gold Technical Analysis – Timetable 4 hours
Gold 4 hours
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is now consolidating below the resistance of the previous range. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a marked risk above the position resistance to fall into the 2600 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see price break higher to set up for a rally back to the 2721 resistance.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Time Table
Gold 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, there is not much else we can add here as the sellers will be looking for a drop from these levels, while the buyers will be looking for a break to the side up to focus on the next struggle. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Catalysts to come
Todaywe get US Retail Sales data. Tomorrow, we have the FOMC Policy Decision. On Thursday, we will get the latest US jobless claims numbers. On Friday, we finish the week with US PCE data.
