Goldman Sachs is forecasting moderate gains in both the US core and core CPI for November, driven by increases in used car prices, aircraft, and energy costs. The company expects the core CPI to rise by 0.28% MoM (vs. 0.3% consensus), translating to a YoY increase of 3.27%. Core CPI is expected to increase 0.28% MoM and 2.7% YoY.
Key points:
Basic CPI Forecast:
- Monthly increase: Expected at +0.28% (vs. +0.3% consensus).
- Year after year: predicted at 3.27%.
- Category:
- Used Cars: +2.0%, reflecting strong auction trends.
- Air fares: +1.0%, supported by seasonal price patterns.
- Clothing: +0.5%, driven by holiday sales prices.
- Car insurance: +0.5%, indicating rebounding levels.
- Communication: -0.5%, likely due to seasonal stimulus effects.
- Shelter: Expect it to decrease, with owner equivalent rent (OER) at +0.33% and rent at +0.28%.
Key CPI Forecast:
- Monthly increase: calculated at +0.28%.
- Year after year: Estimated at 2.7%.
- Contributors: Food prices increased +0.25% and energy costs rose +0.3%.
Effect for Core PCE:
- Main PCE Outlook: It is expected to increase by 0.20% MoM, pending final changes from CPI, PPI, and import price announcements.
Conclusion:
Goldman Sachs expects moderate pressure from inflation in the November CPI report, with prices for used cars, aircraft, and spare parts leading gains. The data should reinforce the idea of a gradual easing of inflation but still supportive of a cautious monetary policy outlook.
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