Bitcoin's price move from its new all-time high of $108,353 on Tuesday to around $96,000 (-11.5% pullback) has greatly ignited speculation as to whether the current bull cycle is nearing its peak. To address growing uncertainty, Rafael Schultze-Kraft, co-founder of on-chain analytics provider Glassnode, released thread on X detailing 18 metrics and on-chain models. “Where is the TOP Bitcoin?” Schultze-Kraft asked, before laying out his detailed analysis.
Has Bitcoin reached the top of its cycle?
Ratio 1/ MVRV: A long-term measure of unprofitable profitability, the MVRV ratio comparing market value with realized value. Historically, readings above 7 indicated overheated conditions. “Right now going around 3 – room to grow,” Schultze-Kraft said. This indicates that, in terms of total unrealized profit, the market is still not at the levels that had been at the same time as macro tops.
2/ MVRV Price Bands: These bands are derived from the number of days MVRV has spent at real rates. Historically, the highest band (3.2) was crossed on only about 6% of trading days. Today, this high band equates to a price of $127,000. As Bitcoin sits at around $98,000, the market has not yet reached a zone that has historically marked major formations.
3 / Long-Term Holder Profit (Unknown Relative Profit & LTH-NUPL): Long-term holders (LTHs) are considered to be more stable market participants. Their unprofitable profit/loss (NUPL) metric is currently at 0.75, entering what Schultze-Kraft calls the “euphoria zone.” He said that in the 2021 cycle, Bitcoin ran another ~3x after hitting similar levels (although he clarified that he did not expect a repeat). Major historical forms often saw LTH-NUPL readings above 0.9. So, although the metric is high, it has not yet completed previous cycles.
In particular, Schultze-Kraft admitted that his views may be conservative because the 2021 cycle peaked at slightly lower profit values than previous cycles. “I would have expected those profitability metrics to reach slightly higher levels,” he explained. This may indicate reduced peaks over successive cycles. Investors should be aware that historical limitations may become less apparent over time.
4/Yearly Profit/Loss Ratio: This metric measures the total profits achieved compared to losses achieved over the past year. Bike tops have previously seen values above 700%. Currently at around 580%, it still shows “room to grow” before reaching levels historically associated with market tops.
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Ratio 5/ Market Cap to Thermocap: An early on-chain metric, it compares the total market capitalization of Bitcoin to the cumulative mining cost (Thermocap). In previous bull runs, the limits of the ratio align with the market tops. Schultze-Kraft advises caution with certain target areas but notes that current levels are nowhere near previous highs. The market is still below historical thermocap multiples that have indicated overheated conditions in the past.
6 / Thermocap Multiples (32-64x): Historically, Bitcoin has increased at about 32-64 times higher than Thermocap. “We're at the bottom of this range,” Schultze-Kraft said. Hitting the top band in today's environment would put Bitcoin's market cap at just over $4 trillion. Given that the current market capitalization ($1.924 trillion) is significantly lower, this suggests that there may be a substantial upside to historical patterns.
7/ The Investing Tool (2-year SMA x5): The Investing Tool applies a 2-year simple moving average (SMA) of price and a 5x multiple of that SMA to identify key zones. “That currently stands at $230,000,” Schultze-Kraft said. Since the current price of Bitcoin is well below this level, the indicator has not yet flashed any major unclear signals.
8/Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT6): This model uses deviations from a 4-year moving average to capture cyclical price extremes. Historically, BPT6 has been reached in previous bull markets, and that band is now at $151,000. With Bitcoin at $98,000, the market is still short of previous levels associated with overheating.
9/ The Real Middle Market & AVIV: The Real Middle Market is another cost model. Its MVRV equivalent, called AVIV, measures how far the market is away from this mean. Historically, tops have seen more than 3 standard deviations. The same thing today “comes to values above ~2.3,” while the current reading is 1.7. “Room to grow,” said Schultze-Kraft, meaning that the market by this metric has not yet stretched to its historical levels.
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10 / Low / Medium / Top Cap Models (Delta Cap Derivatives): Historically these models, based on the Delta Cap metric, showed reduced values in the 2021 cycle, without reaching the 'Top Cap.' Schultze-Kraft urges caution in interpreting them as the result of changing market structures. Currently, the mid-cap level is around $4 trillion, roughly 2x from current levels. If the market were to follow previous patterns, this would allow for significant growth before reaching levels typical of earlier peaks.
11 / Days of Multiple Value Destroyed (VDDM): This metric measures long-term coin spending behavior compared to the annual average. Historically, real values above 2.9 indicated that older coins were hitting the market hard, often at the end of bull markets. Currently, it is at 2.2, not yet at real levels. “Room to grow,” Schultze-Kraft noted, suggesting that not all long-term holders have fully embraced profitability.
12/ The Multiple Mayer: The Many Mayers compared the price to the 200-day SMA. Pre-purchase conditions in previous cycles according to values above 2.4. Currently, a Mayer Multiple above 2.4 would correspond to a price of around $167,000. With Bitcoin under $100,000, this threshold is still a long way off.
13/ Oscillator Cycle Extremes Chart: This combination uses several binary indicators (MVRV, aSOPR, Puell Multiple, Reserve Risk) to complete cycles. “Currently 2/4 forward,” meaning that only half of the following conditions for an overheated market are met. Previous peaks aligned with a whole series of stimulus signals. Therefore, the chart shows that the cycle has not reached the intensity of a full blown peak.
14/ Pi Cycle Top Mark: A price-based indicator that has historically identified cycle peaks by comparing short-term and long-term moving averages. “Right now the short moving average is well below the peak ($74k vs. $129k),” Schultze-Kraft said, indicating that there was no crossover and thus no classic major indicator. .
Risk Ratio 15 / Sell-Side (LTH Version): This ratio compares the total realized profits and losses to the realized market capitalization. High values are associated with volatile, late bull markets. “The interesting range is at 0.8% and above, and we are currently at 0.46% – room for growth,” explained Schultze-Kraft. This means that, despite recent speculation, the market has not yet entered the intense selling pressure zone often seen near tops.
Inflation Rate 16 / LTH: Schultze-Kraft identified the Long-Term Owner Inflation Rate as “the most advanced chart I've come across so far. ” Although he did not provide specific target values or thresholds in this section, he said that he is “causing caution. ” Investors should keep a close eye on this as it may indicate increased outflows from long-term holders or other structural headwinds.
17/ STH-SOPR (Short Term Return Profit Ratio): This metric measures the profitability behavior of short term holders. “Increased right now, but not sustainable,” Schultze-Kraft said. In other words, while short-term participants are taking profits, the data still does not show the kind of persistent, aggressive profit that is typical of a market top.
18 / SLRV Ribbons: These ribbons track trends in short-term and long-term value. Historically, when both moving averages break out and cross over, it indicates a market turning point. “Both moving averages are still moving up, only becoming bearish at rounded and crossover tops. No indication of a ceiling at this time,” Schultze-Kraft said.
Overall, Schultze-Kraft emphasized that these metrics should not be used in isolation. “Never rely on single data points—confluence is your friend,” he advised. He acknowledged that this is a non-exhaustive list and that Bitcoin's evolving ecosystem—now with ETFs, regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and geopolitical factors—may make historical comparisons less reliable. . “This cycle can look very different, but we have (historical) data,” he concluded.
While several metrics show that the Bitcoin market is moving into a more euphoric and profitable territory, few have reached the historic levels that marked previous cycle tops. Indicators like MVRV, profitability ratios, thermal metrics, and various price-based models generally suggest “room for growth,” although at least one—the LTH Inflation Rate—sounds a note of caution. Some combinations are partially triggered, while classic key indicators such as Pi Cycle Top remain inactive.
At press time, BTC was trading at $96,037.
Featured image created by DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
