MUFG Bank expects the euro to weaken against the dollar, which could be close to parity in the first quarter of 2025, before stabilizing and moderately recovering in the second half of the a year
The forecast reflects macroeconomic divergence early in the year, a dynamic that the bank sees as a key driver of the euro's weakness.
However, MUFG analysts believe that this difference is largely priced into current market levels, limiting the opportunity for another negative impact.
As these macroeconomic differences begin to fade, the euro is expected to regain some ground later in the year.
