The Global FX Strategy team at Nomura Securities forecasts a possible strengthening of the US dollar in 2025, driven by two main factors:
- continued high inflation in the United States, which could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates,
- and President Trump's immigration policies, which could have a major impact on the economic situation.
The analysis also highlights expected cash performance trends for the first half of 2025. Underperformance is likely to include
- South Korea won,
- Thai baht,
- Singapore dollar,
- swiss franc,
- and Swedish krona,
The Indonesian rupiah,
- Japanese yen,
- and the Norwegian krone
they are expected to perform relatively better.
Among the trades recommended by Nomura is a long position
- USD/CNH, targeting 7.60,
- and USD/KRW, targeting 1,500, by the end of May 2025.
This view underlines the complex relationship between global economic policies and money market dynamics.
