Main PCE yy
Main PCE (excluding food & energy):
- Base-m/m +0.1% vs +0.2% exp
- Core non-accumulated PCE +0.1149% vs +0.274% m/m/m previously
- PCE excluding food, energy and housing +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% m/m previously (revised to +0.2%)
Main PCE:
- PCE headline +2.4% y/y vs +2.5% expected
- Deflator +0.1% m/m vs +0.2% expected
- Unlimited Headline +0.1280% vs +0.238% m/m previously
Consumer spending and income for November:
- Personal income +0.3% vs +0.4% expected. Previous month changed to +0.7%
- Personal spending +0.4% vs +0.5% expected. Previous month changed to +0.3%
- Real personal spending +0.3% vs +0.1% previously
- Savings rate 4.4% vs. 4.4% previously
Ahead of the report, the market was pricing in 42.7 bps of discount in 2025.
On Wednesday, Powell said:
“Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that overall PCE prices rose 2.5 percent over the 12 months ending in November and, excluding the volatile food sectors and energy, that PCE core prices rose 2.8 percent.”
This is a surprisingly cool report overall and the US dollar is selling while bonds are rallying.
