Cryptocurrency prediction markets indicate a strong likelihood that TikTok will face a ban in the US by May 2025.
According to the latest information, leading platforms Polymarket and Kalshi both indicate a high probability that the ByteDance-owned app will be shut down.
Polymarket data shows a 79% likelihood of a TikTok ban, with a transaction volume reaching $5.6 million. Similarly, Kalshi predicts a probability of 89%, with $2.23 million in stakes. Both platforms have seen a significant increase in these probabilities since early January 2025.
The prediction markets work similarly to stock exchanges, where users can buy contracts based on real-world results. In this case, merchants will receive payments if TikTok is “banned for download and/or use by the majority of Americans” by April 30.
The high trading numbers suggest a strong confirmation in the market regarding the appearance of a ban.
The current situation comes from legislation that comes into effect on Sunday. But, President Biden said that he will not implement it on his last day in office. That means the incoming Trump administration will have the authority to extend the ban 90 days after taking office on Monday.
The possible ban attracted the attention of several people, including prominent YouTuber MrBeast expressing interest in getting TikTok to ban it.
In a recent tweet, he said he had received outreach from several billionaires regarding a possible acquisition effort. However, it is not clear how practical such a move is.
“Shark Tank” host Kevin O'Leary and former Los Angeles Dodgers owner Frank McCourt expressed interest in buying the platform's US operations.
The high confidence of the prediction markets in the ban reflects growing concerns about the future of TikTok in the US Trump recently speak to President Xi Jinping of China and discussed a number of topics, including TikTok.
Trump also posted on Truth Social that the Supreme Court's decision to uphold TikTok's sell-or-ban law was expected.
“My decision on TikTok will be made soon, but I need to have time to review the situation,” Trump said.
