Polymarket predicts a 78% chance Solana ETFs will receive SEC approval this year

Key Takeaways

Polymarket bettors predict a 78% chance of SEC approval for Solana ETFs in 2025.
Five fund managers have filed for Solana ETFs but are facing challenges with SEC approval.

Bettors on the Polymarket prediction market are pricing in a 78% probability that the SEC will approve spot Solana ETFs in 2025, after previous approval for Bitcoin and Ethereum investment products.

Created just yesterday, the vote it started at 45% and has now increased above 70%.

Even with the hope of a possible regulatory agreement this year, traders are not sure that any decision will come before the second quarter. A separate Polymarket poll from November currently shows 57% odds for Solana ETF approval by July 31, down from 70% earlier in the week.

Five fund managers – Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Canary Capital – have submitted bids for Solana ETFs since January 2.

The outcome will largely depend on the SEC's stance on SOL. Currently, the legal status of SOL is uncertain due to an ongoing investigation by the securities regulator. The SEC has classified SOL, along with several other crypto funds, as a security in its lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase.

The SEC has told at least two ETF issuers that it will do so to reject their Solana ETF applicationsaccording to FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett. Sources indicate that the SEC is unlikely to approve new crypto ETFs “under the current administration.”

However, with the Trump administration coming in and expected changes in SEC leadership, ETF experts are optimistic about the future of ETFs tracking the world's sixth largest crypto fund .

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expect new altcoin ETFs in 2025, including products tracking Litecoin, Hedera, XRP, and Solana, and new leadership at the SEC is critical to the approval of XRP and Solana ETFs.

Nate Geraci, President of ETF Shop, also expects spot Solana ETFs to be approved this year.

The best 5 ETF 2025 crypto predictions in order of confidence…

1) Launch a spot hybrid btc & eth ETFs (transparent)

2) Spot eth ETF options trading

3) Spot btc & eth ETF creation/repurchase in kind

4) Spot eth stake ETF

5) Spot sol ETF approved

Actually, all of these will happen.

– Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) January 2, 2025

On Dec. 19, ETF manager Volatility Shares filed for three ETFs focused on Solana futures, although such futures are not currently available on CFTC-regulated exchanges.

Balchunas and Geraci see these developments as positive signs for the future approval of Solana-based ETFs.