This is via Tortsten Sløk, Apollo's Chief Economist (Apollo is a US asset management company).
I don't think I would put the probability of a Fed hike a little less than 50-50 this way, but I can see the possibility (maybe 20% for me).
Also, from the company's 2025 perspective, some (very brief) reasoning as to why Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rates may rise:
- It is too early to assess the impact of new policies that may exist after the election of Donald Trump as US president. That said, if implemented, his main policy goals—lower taxes, higher tariffs, and lower immigration—could raise rates, boost asset prices, drive inflation, and strengthen the dollar.
