Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is said to be reflecting on his future on leave following the resignation of his top cabinet minister, Chrystia Freeland, in mid-December. The bombshell move prompted a new wave of calls for Trudeau to step down as Liberal leader, both inside and outside of caucus.
The Liberal hold on power appears to be weakening as MPs prepare to return to the House of Commons on January 27. The NDP, a steady supporter of the minority government since the 2021 election, no longer plans to support the Liberals.
Here's a look at some of the scenarios that could play out in the coming weeks:
expansion
Regardless of whether or not Trudeau resigns as Liberal leader, the government could seek a deadline to end all House of Commons business.
If Governor General Mary Simon honors the postponement request, all outstanding legislation effectively dies on the order paper.
Once the House reconvenes, a new Throne Speech will set the government's new legislative agenda. In addition, legislation in progress prior to settlement could potentially be revived.
In 2008, then-prime minister Stephen Harper significantly suspended parliament shortly before a no-confidence vote that would have seen his minority Conservative government ousted and replaced by an NDP-Liberal coalition backed by the Bloc Québécois.
A vote of no confidence
The Conservatives, the Bloc Québécois and the NDP have all said they are ready to topple the Liberal government through a no-confidence vote.
If a motion of no confidence is passed in the House of Commons, an immediate election campaign could begin.
An opportunity to topple the government could come Jan. 30, prompted by New Brunswick Conservative MP John Williamson's plan to push the proposal through the Public Accounts Committee.
See | The Conservatives want to table a motion of no confidence this month:
Williamson has expressed his desire to table a motion of no confidence at the next meeting of the committee chaired by the Conservatives on Tuesday. Williamson says he will schedule meetings throughout January if Liberal committee members filibuster the motion.
If the motion passes, Williamson says, it will be sent to the House of Commons for further debate, and could be up for a vote as early as Jan. 30.
The Liberals have survived previous Conservative no-confidence motions in support of the NDP. It seems that situation will not happen now. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh said his party will bring its no-confidence motion as soon as possible, regardless of whether the Liberal leader is elected.
The Conservatives, NDP and Bloc Québécois will receive opposition before March 26, when they are allowed to submit business like no-confidence motions.
However, it is up to the House Leader to schedule those days, so they may not be until mid to late March.
Liberal leadership competition
If Trudeau heeds calls to step down as Liberal leader, it will trigger a race to succeed him.
According to the constitution of the Liberal Party, a meeting of the party executive must be convened within 27 days of the resignation of the leader to create rules and infrastructure for the leadership contest.
There is a provision in the constitution that the Liberal Caucus can be consulted on who will be the interim leader. A Dec. 23 letter from the party's Atlantic caucus called for Trudeau to resign and called for caucus consultation in the event of a leadership race.
The constitution does not stipulate how long the leadership battle should last, but candidates must collect the necessary signatures and submit a written nomination letter to the party president at least 90 days in advance.
A registered Liberal is someone who has been a member of the party for 41 days before the vote and meets the registration requirements.
All registered members receive one vote for each electoral district in Canada with equally weighted ballots. Each district is worth 100 points.
New Brunswick Liberal MP Wayne Long tells Power & Politics that some cabinet ministers have privately agreed that Justin Trudeau should step down as party leader and is encouraging them to go public. BC Liberal MP Ken Hardy says Chrystia Freeland is the best fit to replace Trudeau.
Trudeau remains
In this situation there is no mechanism within the Liberal Party for a caucus to remove Trudeau as leader, so the decision to stay or go is up to him alone.
If Trudeau tries to weather the storm, he could lead the party into the next election, which should be held in October. Canadians could go to the polls early, given the opposition parties' promise of early elections.
The Liberals appear to have a tough road ahead in their bid to secure a fourth mandate, with opinion polls suggesting the Conservatives have held a large lead for more than a year.
