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Richmond Fed composite index -10 versus -10 estimate


  • Action of Making: I stayed in borders; The composite index rose to -10 in December (from -14 in November). Listen. -10
  • Index of Components:
    • Ships: -11 vs -12 last month
    • Employment: -8 vs -10 last month
    • New Orders: Better to -11 vs -19 last month
  • Local business conditions: Index improved to 0 (from -14); future local business conditions increased to 40 (from 31).
  • Future Expectations: Futures indices for shipments and new orders moved further into positive territory, pointing to expected improvements in the next six months.
  • Six months on Loads 41 against 33
  • New orders six months ahead 43 against 37 last month
  • Seller lead time: Index increased to 11 (from 4).
  • Background information: Fewer companies said they were shrinking back; index increased to -13 (from -27).
  • Prices:
    • Prices paidlast month: 2.86 against 2.48 last month. Growth rate increased slightly.
    • Prices receivedlast month: 1.71 against 2.07. Growth rate decreased.
    • 12-month expectation: Companies expected growth in both prices paid and prices received. Prices paid 3.78 against 2.61 last month. Prices received 2491 against 2.20 last month

Summary:

The data show modest improvements in current manufacturing conditions, with smaller contractions in several key indicators such as new orders, inventories, and capacity utilization. Local business conditions improved dramatically, and vendor lead times increased. Looking ahead, the outlook for the next six months suggests optimism, with improvements in shipments, new orders, and employment. However, companies expect higher price growth for both inputs and outputs.



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