Russia is protecting the old strongman in Syria. But he also talks to the rebels who killed him

The three-star flag representing Syrian rebel groups was raised on a pole atop the Syrian embassy in Moscow on Monday – even as brutal Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad is believed to be in exile in Russia after to President Vladimir Putin to approve him and his. family sanctuary.

“This is politics,” said Ahamad Al-Gafra, a Syrian national who spoke to Reuters outside the embassy. “I think Russia is entitled to its interests.”

Over the past ten years, Russia has spent billions of dollars supporting the Al-Assad regime, giving it a foothold in the Middle East and leasing two strategically important military bases. In return, the Russian air force launched tens of thousands of deadly airstrikes against opposition groups and Syrian cities.

With the help of Russia, Al-Assad crushed his opposition, killing hundreds of thousands of Syrians, and forcing millions more to flee.

Now that the regime has fallen, the Kremlin finds itself sheltering a one-time strongman and trying to manage ties with the rebel groups that were quickly swept away to defeat him. on.

A sudden political movement

The rebel campaign towards the Syrian capital, Damascus, was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamist group originally linked to al-Qaeda.

Russia, along with several other countries, including Canada, considers HTS a terrorist organization. But the language used in the Russian media to describe them has declined almost as quickly as the fall of the Al-Assad regime.

Near the beginning of his show on Sunday, Russian television host Dmitry Kiselyov referred to HTS as a terrorist organization and a former cell of al-Qaeda. But by the end of the broadcast, he was referring to the rebels as “armed resistance.”

“Since yesterday, (the language in the Russian media) has been very unfair towards Assad,” said Anna Matveeva, a senior researcher at King's College London. “They don't mention it as a bloody dictator – but not to say he was a white knight in shining armor, either.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov would not elaborate on the whereabouts of Al-Assad or his wife, Asma, and their three adult children. But Russian state media have reported that the family has been granted asylum in the country.

Al-Assad and his wife, who was raised in London, are sanctioned by several governments, but have strong ties to Russia.

Russian connections

According to a survey by the Financial Times, Al-Assad's extended family previously bought at least 18 luxury apartments in one building in Moscow in an attempt to protect their money during the civil war and rounds of international sanctions.

Al-Assad three children vacationing at a beach town in Crimea as a teenager, after Russia illegally annexed the peninsula in 2014. In 2023, Al-Assad's eldest son, Hafez, graduated from a master's program in mathematics at Moscow State University. His mother, now Syria's first lady, was part of a special delegation that traveled to Moscow for the ceremony.

Matveeva told CBC that she met Al-Assad's eldest son in 2019 at a cultural event in Damascus, and she remembers speaking to him briefly in Russian.

She says it is not surprising that the Kremlin gave asylum to the Al-Assad family. The arrangement quickly removed him from the country and allowed him to escape the fate of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, which was hanged in 2006, and Moammar Gadhafi of Libya, who was shot by rebels after he was ousted from power in 2011.

“Russia would, of course, be able to control what it does or doesn't do. It wouldn't be involved in any political activity if Moscow didn't think it was in their best interest.”

Any moral argument that Russia should not be extraditing war criminals is “completely lost” on the Kremlin, Matveeva says.

“Putin himself wants it the International Criminal CourtThe Russian government considers it “just a political leaflet.”

On the streets of Moscow, a journalist working for Reuters spoke to a handful of residents. All of them publicly supported the actions of their government.

“There is a slogan – 'We don't dump our (relatives).' I understand that politics is a complex and delicate business,” said one man, who would only be known by his first name, Leonid.

Russia has previously granted high-profile political asylum, including for Viktor Yanukovychthe former president of Ukraine who was convicted of treason for supporting Russia's 2014 invasion.

Edward Snowden, a former US National Security Agency contractor accused of leaking classified documents on US government surveillance programs granted asylumtoo (and received Russian citizenship in 2022).

Russian military and investment in Syria

Although the Kremlin has not said when Al-Assad arrived or even the last time he met with Putin, officials say that everything is being done to try to lease two Russian military bases from a government Syria.

Russia has an air base based at Hmeimim in the Latakia region of Syria and a naval facility at Tartus on the coast, which is Russia's only repair base in the Mediterranean.

Moscow often uses Syria as a staging ground to move its military contractors in and out of Africa. They had an agreement with the now defunct Syrian regime to lease the spaces until 2066.

“Now we see that we are in a period of transformation, real instability, so, of course, it will take time and a real dialogue with those who will be in power,” said Peskov during a press conference Monday morning with journalists.

In addition to the military bases, Russia has about $20 billion worth of investments in Syria, including oil and gas projects.

Matveeva says that if Moscow lost them, he would say that the Syrian effort was a setback, but not “disastrous”.

During the civil war, Matveeva says that there were not many Russian soldiers inside Syria. Instead, paid fighters from Wagner's mercenary group were on the ground.

She says that the average Russian does not really see Syria as their war, with the military and much of the economy diverted towards the battle in Ukraine.

Nikita Smagin, an independent expert on Russia and the Middle East, said that when Russia entered the conflict in Syria in 2015, the Kremlin saw it as an opportunity to gain a presence in the region among other global players. , such as the US.

“Russia saw Syria as a very important asset that will help them talk to Western countries, talk to Middle Eastern countries, increase their power, increase their authority,” said Smagin, who spoke to CBC News via Zoom from Baku , Azerbaijan.

Now, he says, Russia is trying to build ties with HTS, in a relationship that Smagin says would be mutually beneficial.

“I think HTS needs Russia in general … because I don't think there will be many countries that are ready to recognize them as a legitimate power, at least in the short term..”

A political pivot

Matveeva says that although Moscow officially supported the Al-Assad regime, it would also have communication channels with various groups in the Syrian rebel forces.

Just as Russia is now strengthening its ties with the Taliban in Afghanistan — which it removed from its lists of terrorist groups earlier this fall — Matveeva says Russia will adjust its Syria policy as the situation on the ground changes.

“Russian officials will try to work out a new political line,” she said.

Putin, like other heads of state, is looking to see if HTS can lead Syria to a stable government. If so, the Kremlin may say that they did not like the way the group came to power, but they will move to create diplomatic ties, as it is in Russia's interest.

If the political change suddenly creates a power vacuum where violence continues, Matveeva says Russia may claim that Al-Assad is the best of several bad options.

“If they all start fighting each other, Russia will say, 'Hey, okay, our bastard was still a little better than … when nobody's in control.'”