Russia's naval base problems could be a major blow to its submarine force

• A Russian attack submarine stationed in Syria has officially left the Mediterranean.

• The departure of the Kilo-class Novorossiysk leaves Russia without known submarines in the region.

• The uncertainty of Russia's naval presence in Syria, among other obstacles, could pose a problem for its submarine force.

Russia's strategic naval bases have been consumed by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, creating headaches for the Kremlin's navy, including its submarine force.

Moscow appears to have no attack submarines in the Mediterranean after NATO forces saw their last submarine leave the area last week.

Portugal's military said it spotted a Russian Kilo-class submarine moving through the country's continental economic zone near northern Spain on Friday. NATO Maritime Command identified the ship as the Novorossiysk.

The Novorossiysk was seen several weeks earlier at Tartus, naval base in Syria which Russia had been using for years. The future of Moscow's military footprint at the facility – and in the wider country – has, however, been thrown into uncertainty following the dramatic fall of the Assad regime last month.

There are indications that it is Russia is drawing down forces at its base in Syria. Losing Tartus for good would be a major blow to Moscow's navy – including its capable submarine force – which relies on the warm-water port to send power across the region and beyond.

Satellite images in early December showed the Novorossiysk docked in Tartus, but by mid-month, it was gone, along with the rest of the Russian warships was there. Some Russian navy ships were seen a few weeks ago going off the coast of Syria, but they were not so sure where this submarine was.

If the new Syrian leadership decides that Russia can no longer station its forces at Tartus, it would mark another setback for Moscow's navy, which has suffered a series of stunning losses in the nearby Black Sea since its inception. full-scale war in Ukraine for almost three years. ago.

Ukrainian forces have used naval missiles and drones to damage or destroy dozens of Russian naval vessels, including one of six improved Kilo-class submarines Moscow's Black Sea Fleet operates during the conflict.

These attacks forced Moscow to withdraw The Black Sea Fleet from its headquarters in Sevastopol, the capital city in the southwestern corner of the Crimean peninsula, across the region to the port of Novorossiysk on Russia's western coast. If Russia cannot move back to Sevastopol, that will create problems.

For Russia, it is not so good to lose the ability to keep submarines at Sevastopol and Tartus.

Bryan Clark, a former US Navy officer and defense analyst at the Hudson Institute, said the rest of the Kilo-class ships are based in St Petersburg, where there is a large naval facility and dry docks for maintenance.

“The Russians will now have to redeploy their submarine force back north” instead of relying on warm-water ports that “could be in and out of all year round,” Clark told Business Insider. “St. Petersburg, you can't get in and out all year.”

Recent developments are also weakening Russia's military influence in the Mediterranean and southern Europe, Clark said.

The Novorossiysk is a newer improved Kilo subdivision. Submarines of this class are diesel-electric and formidable vessels long-range strike platforms which can attack ships and land targets, deploy for weeks on end, and remain largely undetected. They are effectively Russia's most capable non-nuclear sub and can carry Kalibr missiles.

Russia has held a Kilo-class vessel in the area for years. If the ship leaves the area, although Russia may ultimately choose to move another submarine into the area later, that could lead to a wider decline in naval capability of Russia in the Mediterranean Sea.

In four years, it seems that Russia has gone “from being a very large player in the Med – in terms of naval forces – to being a non-existent player now,” Clark said.

Russia's fundamental challenges could hamper its ability to project power. The uncertainty with Tartus and Hmeimim Air Base nearby – reinforces the broader case for the Russian military.

Satellite images captured Monday by Maxar Technologies, a commercial imaging company, show no visible signs of major Russian naval vessels at Tartus, as has been the case in recent weeks. The military intelligence agency of Ukraine has said Russia is withdrawing from the bottom.

It remains to be seen whether Moscow is able to negotiate an arrangement with the new Syrian leadership to stay in the country or whether it will be able to move to a new hub in North Africa to maintain its operations.

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