The USDCHF fell sharply after the US CPI yesterday and in the process fell below its 200 hourly moving average (green line on the chart below currently at 0.9119). However, the trend could not be sustained, and a snapback rally continued with the price moving back to and through the 200-hourly moving average and up to the 100-hourly moving average (hourly blue line chart below).
Sellers continued to resist the 100-hourly moving average and have held a ceiling on the pair against that level. Recently in the US session a fresh break of the 200-hourly moving average has led to new session highs for the day.
The salesmen are making a play.
What is needed to maintain the bias at least in the short term in favor of the sellers?
Staying below the 200-hourly moving average of 0.9119 is the best case scenario. If that can happen, a retest of yesterday's low and the rising 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.9077 will be the next key target. Break below that level and traders would start looking down towards the 38.2% move up from the December low. That rate comes in at 0.90209. I would expect customers to have good support against that level on testing
. If the 200 hourly moving average is breached again, that should disappoint the sellers and traders looking towards another retest of the 100 hourly moving average and 0.91429. A break above that and the high prices from earlier in the week at 0.9200 would be a target target.
