Dogecoin (DOGE) has entered a period of weakness, sliding about 16% from its November 23 local level of $0.4795. As the original cryptocurrency meme struggles to recover key technical levels, the consensus among some analysts is that DOGE's ability to stabilize or recover may be almost entirely dependent on a feature from the outside: Bitcoin trail.
Dogecoin price in danger of another fall
Technical analysis indicates that the highly regarded uptrend line, established in mid-November, has now turned into a major barrier. After breaking this support line earlier in the week, Dogecoin bulls tried several times to push the price back above it. But none of these efforts were successful.
Crypto analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA). 786 Fib.” – technical zone often associated with important turning points and reversals.
Beyond the trend line, internal momentum indicators paint a challenging picture. Kevin emphasizes that the daily MACD for DOGE shows a “strong trend to the downside,” a technical indicator that suggests the market's short- to medium-term bias could be lower if it doesn't move the broader crypto environment.
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In his opinion, “It is safe to say that without BTC moving higher the most likely move for DOGE in the short to medium term is lower. A higher BTC move could save us though.” He identifies $0.32 – the origin of the previous uptrend line – as a major downside target. If DOGE does not hold above that level, traders can look towards the $0.29 to $0.26 range as possible next stops.
In another post on X, Kevin emphasized that Dogecoin's price was pinned between two critical long-term Fibonacci levels. He states that DOGE is currently “trading between the gold macro pocket,” around $0.47, and the 0.5 Fib macro level near $0.39. According to him, a strong break above or below these important levels could trigger a “cascading” effect of an “aggressive move”.
He said: “My position is that DOGE is not in control of itself and its fate is solely in BTC's hands at the moment so focusing too much on the fund is a waste of time. I don't see anything telling me the cycle is over so this should go higher soon regardless of the short term noise. There's nothing else to do but sit back and wait if you're a long-term holder who got in early like myself.”
However, there is at least one silver lining worth noting. Kevin says that he is “watching for (a) that may be hidden bullish divergence” on the DOGE daily chart. Hidden divergences occur when price action continues to move higher over a longer period of time, while momentum indicators – such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) – are moving lower .
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Sometimes this pattern can indicate that the fundamental strength of a market is greater than it appears. It is, as the analyst says, “pretty textbook” at the moment, although it still needs some serious help from Bitcoin. “BTC still needs to collaborate so nothing is guaranteed,” Kevin said.
What about Bitcoin?
Kevin says that Bitcoin is currently “squeezing” between an uptrend support line and a gold macro pocket – levels that came from the previous bull market high until the market low. This tightens the price action suggesting an impending resolution: BTC is unlikely to stay tight in this range for much longer. A definite rupture, in either direction, seems imminent and could have far-reaching consequences. “This consolidation cannot last much longer. We'll get bust in both directions pretty quickly,” Kevin predicts.
In terms of liquidity, Kevin sees large liquidity blocks upside for BTC, noting that “built-up liquidity” over the last 48 hours aligns with the 1.703 Fibonacci macro level. He also mentions observational data that shows whales buying large options calls for MicroStrategy stock (MSTR). Such buying may indicate anticipation of a higher BTC move, given MicroStrategy's well-known Bitcoin financial holdings. If these whales and liquidity signals are correct, and BTC is indeed pushing up, DOGE may get the “only lifeline” it needs to survive the downturn in- stabilize and reverse the current.
At press time, DOGE was trading at $0.405.
Featured image created by DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
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