As the North American session begins, US indexes in pre-market are slightly higher led by the Nasdaq.
- Download 7 pixels
- S&P up 8.59 points
- Nasdaq up 43 points
Yesterday, all the indexes fell.
US output is higher for the 3rd day in a row:
- 2 year 4.169%, up 2.1 bps
- 5 year 4.119%, up 2.3 bps
- 10 year 4.247%, up 2.7 bps
- 30 year 4.439%, up 3.2 bps
US treasuries sell 10-year notes at 1 PM ET after yesterday's 3-year auction which I gave a C rating because most components were close to averages over the 6 months a went away .
In the commodity markets:
- Crude oil is up $0.94 or 1.37% at $69.53. Top resistance is near the $70 level (near a downward trend line). The 200-hour MA stopped the corrective drop near $68.58
- Gold is trading slightly higher by $2 or 0.07% at $2695.53
- Bitcoin is trading up $1874 at $98521.
All of that comes ahead of key US CPI data due at 8:30 AM ET today. The report is expected to show that the annual prime number increased to 2.7%. That is higher than the 2.6% in the previous month. The monthly increase is expected at 0.3%. The cCore inflation that excludes food and energy is expected to come in at 3.3%, unchanged from October, and also up 0.3% month-on-month.
Markets feel that such numbers would not stop the Fed from easing policy at the December meeting next week (Wednesday, December 18). The Fed has already cut rates by 75 basis points since the September-18 meeting.
The market has priced in an 86% chance of a 25 basis point cut next week.
Later today, the BOC will announce its latest interest rate decision with the central bank expected to cut rates by 50 basis points to 3.25% vs. 3.75% currently. The USDCAD is trading near highs going back to 2020. It would take a series of breaks below 1.4145 down to 1.4088 to increase the bearish bias. Without that, and the customers you can argue, they still have more control.
In the forex market, the US dollar is higher than the major currencies today with the biggest gains against JPY, NZD and AUD.
In the video below, I discuss the technical aspects of the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.
EURUSD: The EURUSD is trading below a group of MA ahead of the US CPI. Stay below is more bearish. Moving up would shift the bias back up.
USDJPY: The USDJPY moved above the daily 200 MA and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 152.02. Resistance at the 50% and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart between 152.69 to 152.79.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD found defensive sellers near the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and the 50% midpoints near 1.2779. Support is near a swing area between 1.2712 and 1.2722. In between is the 100 hour MA at 1.2752. These levels will be used by traders to provide the risk definition levels and also the roadmap for more upside (on a higher break above the 200 MA bar and the 4-hour chart ), or more downside (on a break below the lower swing area ).
Source link
