The ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has raised concerns and warnings that the war-torn country may not be able to contain the chaos that followed among some of its regional neighbors when the governments to destroy them.
However, although it is still very early days, some observers say there have been positive signs, suggesting that the country may not descend into a free-for-all civil conflict like those which followed the fall of Moammar Gadhafi in Libya or Saddam Hussein in Iraq.
“I think the Syrian people have shown that they care enough about their own country that they care about building a future, a better Syria,” Qutaiba Idlbi, a sa senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs told CBCs Power & Politics.
“And that's why you didn't see many … large scenes of explosions and destruction, which is a very good indication of how Syria will deal with their situation in the future,” he said.
Power & Politics hears from Syrian-Canadian MP Omar Alghabra about the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. In addition, Qutaiba Idlbi from the Atlantic Council, who was imprisoned twice by the Assad regime, discusses what could happen in the region.
Assad fled to Moscow at the weekend and was granted asylum by his longtime ally hours after a stunning rebel advance seized control of Damascus and ended 50 years of his family's iron rule.
But not everyone is so optimistic about Syria's future. With multiple groups and external actors in Syria, the most likely scenario for Syria's future is “unfortunately, due to the same social and ethnic-religious divisions seen throughout the East Middle East,” wrote Daniel E. Mouton, non-resident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative of the Atlantic Council's Middle East Programs.
“Syria may follow the path of Libya and descend into chaos. Competition for power among Syria's various armed groups would wreak havoc on the Levant region,” Moulton wrote on the Atlantic Council website.
'Political vacuum'
Syria is a political vacuum without a clear road map for how it will develop after Assad, Sajjan M. Gohel, director of international security at the Asia-Pacific Foundation in London, said in an email to CBC News.
“All the different groups have competing agendas, interests and ideologies. There is no clarity on what a transitional government will look like, how elections will be held. We are entering your uncharted territory.”
Syria is divided into various regions and ethnic groups, each with its own regional power base. It is home to a multi-religious and multi-ethnic population in which the country's Sunni Muslims, Shia Alawites, Christians and ethnic Kurds are often pitted against each other, whether by Assad's rule or civil war 14 -year.
The rebel alliance that now controls much of the country is led by Abu Mohammed Al-Golani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is designated a terrorist group by the US and the UN. Al-Golani was a former al-Qaeda commander who severed ties with the militant group years ago and promised representative tolerance for government and religion.
Many of the rebel groups have a wide range of ideologies, and each is fighting for supremacy, according to Abdelaziz al-Sager, director of the Gulf Research Center.
“Each one thinks they can be Bashar al-Assad, and each one has loyalty to a foreign party funding his group,” he told Reuters. “They will fight if the UN doesn't and some regional countries with an effort to unify them.”
Worry about revenge murder
At the same time, there are also fears that violence in Syria could allow terrorist groups such as the Islamic State (IS), which in 2014 swept through large areas of Syria and Iraq and established an Islamic caliphate before being overthrown. out by US-led coalition by 2019.
In addition, some are concerned about revenge killings after the civil war, whether against former members of the Assad regime or entire communities seen as supporters of the old regime.
“We saw what happened when Moammar Gadhafi was removed from power in Libya. It created a huge power vacuum,” Gohel to CBC News Network. “Civil war, conflict. There were a lot of human rights abuses, civil liberties undermined. Misogyny, attacks on minorities. And one really has to express those similar concerns about what might happen there. in Syria.”
According to Burcu Ozcelik of the UK's Royal United Services Institute think tank, there is a risk that internal fractures within the shadow movement led by HTS will become more apparent in the coming weeks and months. which is said ABC News that could lead to disagreements and threaten Syrian stability.
“A new Syrian interim administration must soon engage in state-building, including the rebuilding of the Syrian National Security Force and the constitution-building process, as the Syrian state has been painfully sanctified by the Assad regime,” said Ozcelik.
However, allowing Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali and his cabinet to continue ruling is certainly a good sign, wrote Hussain Abdul-Hussain, a researcher at the Foundation for Defending Democracies, on the group's website.
Night curfew announced
Abdul-Hussain also pointed out that Syria's new rulers took over government buildings in an orderly manner, did not smash or burn government facilities – such as the state-owned TV broadcaster – but did re -branded them and used them to appeal to Syrians not to raid. state property.
They also announced a night curfew in Damascus, perhaps aware that security remains the cornerstone of any functioning state, he said.
“All these signs indicate that those who ousted Assad understand the fear of the world, that the sudden disappearance of the regime could lead to wickedness,” he wrote. “Whether they manage to maintain security, stability and basic government – in the short and medium term. term – remains to be seen.”
Some key government services were closed on Monday after state workers ignored calls to return to their jobs.
As Syrian rebels outline their vision for the country's future, The National breaks down what has governed the fight, and what has led to the dramatic fall of the Assad regime from decades ago meant for Syria, the region and the world.
In an interview with CBC News, Abdul-Hussain said that one of the main differences between the situation in Iraq after the fall of Saddam and Syria today is that Iraq failed in part because Iran had power but that he is now weak.
The other big difference is that the rebels who are taking over seem to be aware of the mistakes and problems of the other change processes that happened in countries like Libya, Iraq or Yemen, he said. .
Rebels become more organized
“What you want to see now is that if the government continues to operate, you will have minimum government services, which are necessary to maintain civil peace,” said Abdul-Hussain.
Idlbi, from the Atlantic Council, said that the rebels have become more organized and, at the military and security level, they are showing coordination and cooperation.
“We have seen a very high level of outreach to minority communities to ensure that different ethnic and religious communities are protected – Christians, Alawites, Shias and others – which is very positive, I think, for Syria's future and potential. of these different groups to work together,” he said.
But the problem, he said, is looking at what management structure would be put in place and how inclusive it is.
“So there is a question of course to look at what the behavior of HTS would be and how inclusive it is for everyone in Syria, not only the rebels themselves, but . .. every ethnic, sectarian or religious group throughout Syria,” Idlbi said.
For the next two years, “we should expect that there is a lot of organizing that needs to be done just to figure out how to stabilize the situation in Syria,” he said.
