The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 rises to 3.2% from 3.1% after the housing starts data released earlier today.
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate is for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024. 3.2 percent on December 18, up from 3.1 percent on December 17. Following this morning's preliminary housing report from the US Census Bureau, real growth in residential fixed investment increased in the fourth quarter from 4.7 percent to 5.3 percent.
The next update is GDPNow Friday, December 20. See the “Release Date” tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
At the end of 2023, the Fed predicted that GDP for 2024 would slow to 1.4%. The growth rate has exceeded these estimates as the economy continued to grow. In September, the Fed's 2025 forecast comes in at 2.0%.
Today the Fed will release its forecast for GDP, Unemployment, and PCE (headline and core) inflation. They also provide a forecast of the year-end Fed Funds estimate. In September they predicted 100 bps of additional cuts in 2025. That forecast is expected to be somewhat smaller.
