The mystery of the Syrian IL-76 cargo jet that went missing when Assad fled

There is growing evidence, but still emerging, that the Syrian Airlines Il-76 Candid cargo plane is at this time. Russia's Khmeimim Air Base in Syria yes a man who seemed lost in the last chaotic times of Bashar Al Assad's rule. Rumors and allegations surfaced that the plane had been carrying Assad and had been shot down after it disappeared from online flight tracking sites. The Syrian dictator fled the capital Damascus for Khmeimim, and then to Moscow, according to the first statement given to him in more than a week that was issued earlier today.

The the statement said to be from Assad posted through a channel on the Telegram social media network linked to the now-defunct Syrian regime earlier today, but it is unclear whether or not he drafted and/or the he posted it online. The Syrian dictator has not been seen in public in more than a week, despite Russian officials saying they have offered him asylum. You can read more about the overall current situation in Syria, which remains very fluid, in our previous reports here.

Assad moved to Khmeimim through unspecified means and with the support of Russia on December 8, according to the statement. He also claims that the Syrian strongman initially intended to continue the fight against rebel forces from the Russian base. So far there is no independent proof of this idea. The Battlefield has noticed in the past that the Russian air base would be the safest place in the country for Assad in crisis.

“Without a viable way to leave the base, Moscow requested an immediate evacuation to Russia on the evening of Sunday 8 December. the statement adds. “This happened a day after the fall of Damascus, after the collapse of the last military posts and the result of the paralysis of the remaining state institutions.”

The basic timeline outlined in the statement aligns with online flight tracking data that showed a Syrian Airlines Il-76 with the Syrian registration YK-ATA flying north from the Damascus area early on 8 December. beyond the city of Homs, which rebel forces had taken control of on December 7. That, along with data showing a pronounced left turn and a rapid drop in airspeed and altitude, all the way down to 1,625 feet and 130 knots, was he quickly picked up rumors that the plane was shot down.

Last night we found an Ilyushin Il-76T flight over Syria.

The plane took off from Damascus and the signal was lost near the city of Homs.

* We can confirm that a flight took place.
* The aircraft was old with an older transponder generation, so some data may be bad or… pic.twitter.com/uCGunVeug0

— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) December 8, 2024

Data publicly available from NASA Fire information for a resource management system (FIRMS), which specializes in helping to monitor wildfires and other fires caused by natural disasters, also revealed a 'hot spot' right in the area where the plane crashed where the radar. The Battlefield have been working to get high resolution images of this place, but we still haven't gotten a clear picture. No images have so far emerged showing the wreckage of the Il-76 in Syria.

Last night we found an Ilyushin Il-76T flight over Syria.

The plane took off from Damascus and the signal was lost near the city of Homs.

* We can confirm that a flight took place.
* The aircraft was old with an older transponder generation, so some data may be bad or… pic.twitter.com/uCGunVeug0

— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) December 8, 2024

FIRMS (NASA's fixed fire detection system​​​​/ thermal anomaly) received a hit early in the morning where the IL-76 disappeared on radar between the border of Lebanon and Homs. pic.twitter.com/XQDGR2yLEw

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) December 8, 2024

“The area in which the plane was flying, especially the area of ​​Syria between Homs and the coast, is constantly under GPS control – including spoofing and jamming,” a December 12 post from the official blog for an online flight tracking site. Flightradar24 saying. “With that in mind, an analysis of the raw ADS-B data received from YK-ATA shows position and velocity data that puts a strain on credibility. “

It is also worth noting here that YK-ATA's trip north was unusual, initially, based on aircraft tracking data from ADS-B Exchange which The Battlefield review. In the months before Assad's fall, the plane was very active, but it was seen on flight routes to and from places in Africa. Flightradar24The December 12 blog post also states that “in the past few months the aircraft has made regular visits to Benghazi, Libya. ” There now in their statements that Russia may be looking to make up for any loss of its presence in Syria by expanding its position in Libya, although there are no indications that this is linked to the past history of the YK-ATA flight short.

In addition, it now confirmed that a Syrian Airlines Il-76 is parked in one corner of an open apron at the northeastern end of Khmeimim. Satellite imagery The Battlefield revised from Planet Labs showing Candid at its current position by December 9. An Il-76 was seen parked between the runways the previous day and was not there on 7 December.

Syrian Airlines Yak-40, a passenger plane that is between a large business jet and a small aircraft in terms of size, appeared at the base on December 8. The Yak-40 was initially parked on a different apron, but was next transferred to the Il-76 by 13 December.

The video in the social media post below, which was taken via drone and was based in Turkey Syrian TV released last week, clearly shows Khmeimim's Syrian Airlines Il-76 at several points in its run.

In addition, a Russian Il-76 was found leaving Khmeimim for Moscow on December 8, which is more aligned with the timeline in the new statement attributed to Assad.

Overall, there are indications that Khmeimim's Syrian Airlines Il-76 is YK-ATA and that Assad used that aircraft or the Yak-40 as part of his last flight from the country on December 8. to help with the spirit of other assets, including regime wealth, to Khmeimim and then out of the country. It would have been a priority for Assad to get corporate assets, including gold and silver reserves, to a safe place. The Assad family has already reported that she is leaving great wealth abroad for years. There are reports that there are others former government officials have been on the run to the Russian center to get out of the country with the help of the Kremlin as well.

However, it is not known for sure if it is YK-ATA at the Russian plant. Syrian Airlines has four Il-76s in its inventory and no images have so far emerged clearly showing the registration of Khmeimim's example. There is still a possibility that YK-ATA went elsewhere or came down.

There are still many questions about what might happen to the Khmeimim Air Base, including the Syrian Airlines plane there, as well as the Russian naval base at Tartus. The air and naval assets are highly strategic resources for the Kremlin that support operations outside of Syria. A massive withdrawal of Russian forces from the country going forward, but it is not clear yet whether or not they are going well. Russian officials want that they are still trying to carry on of the two precious coins, but there are unverified reports that they could be ordered to leave the country within a month. You can read more about what is now known about these considerations in a statement here.

The end of the Assad regime has already provided an opportunity for unique views of Khmeimim. Perhaps now clearer images will emerge showing the registration code of the Syrian Airlines Il-76 to settle the question of whether this is the 'missing' jet for good.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com