US President Donald Trump has suggested he may impose tariffs on Canada as early as next month.
Speaking to reporters on his way back to the Oval Office on Monday, Trump raised concerns about the border between Canada and Mexico and repeated his threat to hit both countries with 25 percent tariffs.
“We're thinking about 25 percent (tariffs) in Mexico and Canada because they're allowing large numbers of people … and fentanyl to come in,” Trump said.
“I think we'll do it on February 1,” the president said when asked when those tariffs might be implemented.
Trump, who was sworn in as president on Monday afternoon, has been hinting at tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting in November. Trump initially promised to do so on his first day in office, but several US media outlets began reporting early Monday that tariffs would not be a one-day issue for the new president.
In response to Trump's latest comments, Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly and Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc said the Canadian government is working to convince the new administration that the tariffs will also harm the US economy – but said Canada is ready to respond.
“This is an important moment for Canadians. We must continue to fight for our well-being, to save jobs across the country,” Jolly said.
LeBlanc said Trump's comments Monday evening should not come as a surprise.
“One thing we've learned is that President Trump, at times, can be unpredictable,” LeBlanc said.
“Nothing new this evening that was different from a week ago.”
A 25 percent tariff would be especially devastating for Canada. Experts say that only 10 percent will be charged Save billions of dollars in gross domestic product (GDP). And would potentially plunge the country into a painful recession that would require government stimulus to propel the economy.
Canada is poised to impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. if Trump ultimately moves forward with any trade action. Officials already have a plan in place that would impose immediate tariffs on $37-billion in American goods if Trump takes action against Canada.
Trump issued a memo Monday night, calling on several US departments to — among other things — investigate the causes of America's “large and persistent annual trade deficit in goods, as well as the economic and national security implications and risks arising from such deficits.”
The memo also ordered a public consultation to prepare for an upcoming review of the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) and an investigation into “illegal immigration and fentanyl flows from Canada, Mexico (and China).” It is mentioned in the memorandum that the border security study and the trade deficit study will be completed by May 1st.
Earlier Monday, LeBlanc said he would travel to Washington soon to meet with Trump's incoming Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. He said he would continue to stress to Lutnick that any tariffs in Canada would have a negative impact on the U.S., fueling inflation and disrupting the supply chain.
“It's not in America's interest,” he said. “We think there's a strong case to be made.”
Kirsten Hillman, Canada's ambassador to the U.S., has been furiously lobbying Trump officials to scrap the traffic plan for months.
“I woke up this morning thinking, honestly, we really don't know what's going to happen and nobody's giving us any assurances,” Hillman said.
“But I feel better now than I did then. And I'll feel even better when I see the details of what he's asking about the study,” she said, referring to Trump's call for a review of unfair trade practices.
Ford's concern will be aimed at Ontario
Ontario Premier Doug Ford, meanwhile, took a less optimistic tone.
He said, 'These fees are coming. “Today adds more uncertainty. I think he's targeting Canada, specifically Ontario. Make no mistake, he's coming for us. I think it's a lot worse than yesterday.”
Ford suggested he could call an election soon to get a new mandate from voters to address the tariff threat and potential fallout.
Although Trump could reverse course at any time and impose the threatened tariffs, the decision to initially focus on other priorities — such as cracking down on immigration and clearing the way for more oil and gas drilling — is still a win for Canada because he had it. The US president vowed to take trade action on the first day after winning the November election.
In one of his final campaign stump speeches before Election Day, Trump again touted tariffs as a way to force Canada and Mexico to crack down on drugs and immigrants coming to the US.
“We'll give them a little bit of time, but we don't want drugs coming across our border or any border, whether it's Mexico or Canada or wherever they're starting in Canada, they're starting. Go up north,” he said in Grand Rapids, Mich. said to the crowd.
“We're going to make it clear to them very quickly that if you allow fentanyl and these drugs to come out of your country – we're going to impose massive tariffs on everything you send into the US.”
Ottawa has shown a willingness to engage with Trump on the issue, announcing a $1.3-billion border package that will add more staff and technology to better police the 49th parallel.
Canada also has data on its side. U.S. Customs and Border Protection statistics show the agency seized 19.5 kilograms of fentanyl on the northern border alone last year, while 9,570 kilograms of fentanyl were seized on the Southwest.
For illegal immigrants, there is a huge disparity between Canada and Mexico.
LeBlanc said Canada has “convinced” the incoming administration that its government “fully shares its views in terms of fighting illegal fentanyl, fighting organized crime at the border.”
Joly said Canada has “worked on the border. It's all about the border.”
She said Trump's border czar, Tom Homan, gave her and other officials “some good feedback” over the weekend about the billion-dollar plan — and that it could help Canada avoid Trump.
Trump has long held grudges about Canada's system of supply management for certain farm sectors like dairy, eggs and poultry — a system he tried and failed to kill when he negotiated the first iteration of CUSMA. That trilateral trade deal is up for review in 2026 and supply management could be a flashpoint in those talks.
In a memo released Monday night, Trump ordered the U.S. government to evaluate the possibility of creating an “External Revenue Service” that would be charged with collecting taxes and fees in the future.
Alberta's Smith wants to drop talk of retaliatory tariffs
Alberta Premier Daniel Smith, who is in Washington for inauguration-related events, proposed a solution to the tariff problems, she said, an advisory prepared after meeting with “dozens of governors, senators, members of Congress and aides to the incoming administration.”
She said the federal government and prime ministers would “focus on diplomacy” and leave “further talk of retaliatory measures” such as the threat of Canadian tariffs on American goods or oil supply cuts.
Smith was offside with 12 other premiers and Trudeau last week when he refused to sign off on a plan to take on Trump with potential Canadian countermeasures.
Other premiers and the prime minister agreed to use “every tool in the toolbox,” including possible energy export bans as a last resort, to hit back at Trump if he pushes ahead with tariffs.
Smith said Monday she was “hurt” that other premiers signed off on a plan that could use Alberta's biggest export as leverage.
But the plan drawn up by Ottawa and the premiers called for shared sacrifices and did not leave Alberta oil alone. It was agreed that no region or region would be affected in any way.
To stay in Trump's good graces, Smith said Ottawa must strike a deal with the new president to buy more American goods, double down on new border security measures, dial back immigration levels to the pre-Trudeau era, crack down. “loopholes” allowing “enemy” people to enter Canada and accelerating military spending to quickly hit the two percent of GDP NATO target.