Amidst the relief at the return of hostages and an end to the killing and destruction in Gaza, there are also plenty of questions as to why. a possible ceasefire between Israel and Hamas – broken with the help of Qatar – could not have been signed eight months ago.
For some observers, the incoming US president's main difference is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu found it difficult to say no.
Donald Trump is putting “heavy weight…
Over at Channel 12, his political correspondent Yaron Avarham struck a similar tone.
Trump “toughly said, and he clearly told the prime minister that he wants to see a deal before it's in place,” on Jan. 20, Avarham said, adding that the draft proposal is “the only deal” that has been was filed on May 27 by the Biden administration.
That praise call for a permanent cease-fire, beginning with the exchange of Palestinian hostages and prisoners along with the Israeli withdrawal from populated areas in Gaza. It also included an increase in humanitarian aid and then a long-term plan to rebuild the devastated enclave.
A draft of the current agreement under consideration given to news organizations such as Reuters by Israeli and Palestinian officials are all, or almost, the same provisions.
It is not clear exactly what leverage, if any, Trump has been applying to Israel but in December he vowed that “all hell will break loose” if there is no deal.
While that was widely interpreted as a threat against Hamas, it may have had consequences for Israel as well.
Some Israeli observers believe that Netanyahu and the war in Gaza were simply a distraction that Trump did not want to deal with – and that the prospects of being a historic deal maker were much more appealing.
“I think Trump has other things on his agenda,” said Yossi Beilin, a former Labor cabinet minister in the Israeli government and a key figure who helped start the peace talks that led to the Accords. Oslo 1995.
Trump and Netanyahu have a “very fragile relationship,” he told CBC News, suggesting that while the two leaders may share authoritarian tendencies, they are not natural allies.
More than 46,000 people have been killed in Gaza over the past 15 months – and the pace of Israeli bombing has continued unabated even as negotiators pushed for a final deal, with 27 more dead just the last day.
On the Israeli side, more than 1,200 were killed during Hamas' rampage through Israeli communities on October 7, 2023, most of them civilians, with another 403 soldiers losing their lives fighting in Gaza.
Hamas took nearly 250 people hostage and it is believed that dozens are still alive in captivity.
Under the terms of the ceasefire, Hamas has agreed to return 33 guards within the first 16 days, and then negotiate to return the rest. Israel has agreed to withdraw from most of Gaza, except for a buffer zone around the perimeter. As the hostages are released, Israel would also release more than 1,000 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.
Biden's contract?
On Monday, US President Joe Biden appeared to take credit for the progress, saying the current proposal is essentially the same one he and the his team to get both sides to agree eight months ago, without success.
Since then, and through a series of failed negotiations, tens of thousands of Palestinians and more than 122 Israeli soldiers have been killed, and at least eight hostages are dead; some killed by Israeli attacks.
Biden, and his Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have been harshly criticized by Palestinians, rights groups and even some host families for repeatedly caving to Netanyahu.
Opponents blame the Biden administration for facilitating Israel's horrific attacks on occupied territories in Gaza and for repeatedly failing to follow so-called US red lines, such as when Israel Defense Forces attacked the southern Gaza city of Rafah, threatening hundreds of thousands of people.
The host families with US citizenship also wants the president to cut his own deal with Hamas to free their loved ones, because they felt the Israeli government was ignoring the Biden administration.
But along with international pressure, domestic politics likely influenced Netanyahu's decision to agree to a deal this time around.
After 15 months of relentless Hamas pumping, the “total victory” promised by the Israeli leader is unthinkable.
The militant group continues to launch rockets into southern Israel and, over the last 72 hours, nine Israeli soldiers have lost their lives in northern Gaza, with more twelve were seriously injured.
While the top military leaders of Hamas have been killed, so has the group show persistence by recruiting thousands of new members.
“The mood is grim,” said Beilin, a former cabinet minister.
“The government is saying, 'Yes, we are winning'… But you cannot continue with this explanation for too long.”
Powerful voices within Netanyahu's ruling coalition, however, continue to push for Israel to continue fighting,
Far-right Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir to boast about the pressure he put on Netanyahu to scrap ceasefire agreements – and urged his coalition partners to do the same this time.
In the end though, Netanyahu may have worked out that standing up to Ben Gvir and bringing the remaining enemies home alive adds up to a much-needed political victory.
“The far right is a burden to him (Netanyahu),” Mairav Zonszein, an analyst with the think tank Crisis Group, wrote on X. “He is interested in returning enemies because he gives weight on it and it's a win for the people of Israel.”
Hamas weakened
Hamas's weak position was also clearly a factor in his decision to make a deal.
Despite its successful recruiting efforts inside Gaza, its broader strategic position has deteriorated since May.
Its military commander and October 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar was killed by Israeli soldiers in October. Israel also killed much of the leadership of its main ally Hezbollah, in Lebanon.
Iran, one of Hamas' main backers and an important supplier of military equipment, has also been weakened by Israeli attacks.
In Khan Younis on Tuesday, amid a tent city where hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced from their homes by war, people told CBC News they hoped the militant group would not destroy their a chance for them to start their lives again.
“We hope that Hamas will agree to this compromise and try to stop the suffering of our Palestinians,” said Hala Abu Dabaa, 30.
Alaa Awda, 32, said much the same.
“After this war ends I hope we can live in peace, we can build our homes again and live like other people from all over the world.”
